Global Apple Market Production Updates: Forecasts for 2020/21 Season

World apple production is expected to fall by 4%, or 3.3M MT during MY 2020/21 in comparison to the previous season. The fall in production is due to frost and extremely cold weather during the flowering season in major apple-producing regions. Nevertheless, Poland is expected to recover from a spectrum of bad weather events in the previous year and record an increase in production.

Source: USDA, *Estimate December 2020/21

China: Apple production impacted by frost

China is the world’s largest apple producer and plays a major role in the global apple trade. China’s fresh apple production is expected to fall by roughly 5% from 42M MT to 40M MT. Severe frost in Northern provinces of China has affected the fruitset process during the flowering period. This will not only reduce the overall quantity of apples but will also reduce supplies of high‐quality fruit. 

Despite the fall in production, China’s exports are expected to grow by approximately 15% in MY 2020/21 compared to the previous season. China exports apples to South-East Asian countries like Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam which are more attracted to lower grade apples. The price-conscious countries prefer lower grade apples from China for domestic consumption.

Source: USDA, *Estimate December 2020/21

United States: Challenges in Apple Industry Expected to Continue

Apple harvest on the West Coast (Washington and Okanagan, British Columbia) was already facing challenges due to the labor shortages, supply chain issues from the pandemic and adverse weather conditions. Fires along with strong winds disrupt the beginning of the harvest period which has reduced the expectations further from the 2020/21 season. The overall production is forecasted to fall down by 3% in 2020/21 as another key producing region Michigan experienced a severe freeze and frost during the flowering season. 

European Union Apple Production Expected to Pick Up

EU’s apple production is expected to increase by approximately 5% to touch 12.2M MT in 2020/21. The positive forecast is an outcome of the expected recovery in production in Poland which is one of the largest apple producing regions in the EU. Poland’s apple production suffered severely from frost, lack of workers due to the pandemic and draughts in the 2019/2020 season. The actual rainfall was way below the average rainfall in 2020 which created unfavourable weather conditions for the apple production. As expectation from the rainfall improves, it is expected that the production will recover and come back on track in the 2020/21 season. 

Source: Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM)

Sources:

Notes from Poland. Triple blow of drought, frost and lack of migrant workers will see food prices soar in Poland. 

Tridge. Upcoming Apple Harvest in US Faces Challenges: Wildfires, Labor Shortages, and Tariffs. 

USDA. Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade.