Global Grape Production Set to Increase: A Tridge Review

China, a significant player in the grape market, is expected to register a noteworthy rise in production, with projections indicating an increase of 620 thousand metric tons (mt), bringing the total to 12.6 million metric tons (mmt). This growth is attributed to favorable growing conditions and continuous advancements in farming techniques, contributing to higher yields. The surplus grape supplies are expected to bolster exports to 390 thousand mt, with a particular focus on Asian markets, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Turkey's grape production is also expected to rebound significantly, increasing by 380 thousand mt to reach 2.2 mmt. This revival can be attributed to the recovery of vineyards from last year's frost damage, coupled with favorable growing conditions that have improved overall yields. Despite the rise in supplies, Turkey's grape exports are projected to decline by 39 thousand mt to 225 thousand mt, primarily due to weaker demand from Ukraine, which outweighs the rising trade with Russia and Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, the higher output and reduced exports are expected to drive local consumption to exceed two mmt.

In contrast, India's grape production is anticipated to remain relatively stable at 2.9 mmt. Unseasonal heavy rains for the second consecutive year have hampered grape output and reduced the volumes of export-quality grapes. Additionally, rising domestic demand for raisins has diverted grapes to raisin production, further limiting the availability of fresh grapes for exports. Consequently, India's grape exports are projected to contract by 20 thousand mt to 255 thousand mt, with reduced shipments, particularly to its top market, Bangladesh.

Within the European Union (EU), a notable rebound in grape production is anticipated following two years of losses. The introduction of new seedless grape varieties in Italy, Spain, and Portugal is set to elevate EU output by 161 thousand mt to reach 1.6 mmt. This increased production is expected to augment local consumption to exceed two mmt while maintaining exports at nearly 170 thousand mt due to high freight and transportation costs. Imports into the EU are also expected to remain relatively stable at 590 thousand mt, as gains from Chile are offset by losses from South Africa and Brazil.

Conversely, the US is facing a decline in grape production for the fourth consecutive year, with an estimated output of 811 thousand mt. Reduced water availability and frost have adversely impacted yields, leading to lower supplies. As a result, the US is projected to increase imports to a record 746 thousand mt, while its exports are expected to decrease slightly to 247 thousand mt. These shifts in supply and demand have resulted in a record consumption of 1.3 mmt in the US.

Source: Tridge

Meanwhile, Peru is expected to continue its trajectory of increased grape production for the eighth consecutive year, with supplies reaching over 766 thousand mt. This surge in production will elevate Peru to become the world's top exporter, surpassing Chile, and position it as the ninth-largest producer globally. Peru's exports are estimated to rise significantly to 595 thousand mt, especially to North America, particularly the US.

However, Chile faces adverse growing conditions and reduced acreage, leading to a decline in production by nearly 70 thousand mt to 725 thousand mt. While some growers are replacing older grape varieties with new, higher-yield ones, conversions to more profitable crops such as cherries and walnuts have offset these gains. Consequently, Chile's grape exports are expected to decline by 53 thousand mt to 555 thousand mt.

Finally, Australia's grape production is predicted to experience a slight increase to 200 thousand mt. Nevertheless, challenges in managing disease due to heavy spring rains have affected some growers. Despite this, Australia's grape exports are set to rebound by 20 thousand mt to 130 thousand mt, primarily due to improved shipping logistics, especially to China. Nonetheless, cooler and wet weather at the start of the season may limit fully-ripe volumes towards the end of the season, preventing a stronger recovery.

The global grape production for the 2022/23 season is set to witness significant growth, reaching 27.3 mmt, primarily driven by favorable growing conditions in China and Turkey. While some countries may face challenges, such as adverse weather conditions or shifts in demand, the overall trend indicates a positive outlook for the grape market worldwide.