Global Market Update: Apple

Published 2019년 8월 22일

The global apple market has been going through some interesting movements over the last year. In Europe, there was oversupply leading to large stocks that were carried over to this season. Contrarily, in China, there is currently not enough supply to meet the demand, increasing imports.

The 6-digit Harmonized Tariff System code prefix for Apples is 080810

Price

As of August 22, 2019, the global average wholesale price for apple is 1.21 USD/kg. The price of apples fluctuates a lot per country. In China, prices are rising a lot due to low production volumes and the trade war with the US. In the US, prices are stable, whereas in Europe the market is recovering from low prices last season.

Production

In 2017, around 83.1 million tons of apples were produced. The main producer was China, producing 41.4 million tons. This was followed by the United States (5.2 million tons) and Turkey (3.0 million tons).

Supply and Demand

Supply and demand in the apple market have not been well matched over the last year. In 2018, European production was very high but demand stayed behind, leading to large apple stocks this 2019 season. In China, demand is higher than the domestic supply, leading to high prices and many imports. Countries like New Zealand are benefitting from these supply and demand dynamics, as its supply is fairly stable.

Export

In 2018, the total exported value was 7.6 billion USD. The total exported value saw no change compared to 2017. The total exported quantity was 8.3 million tons. The main exporters were:

China (1.3 billion USD, 17.0%)
USA (1.0 billion USD, 13.3%)
Italy (814.1 million USD, 10.7%)
Chile (703.5 million USD, 9.2%)
France (573.4 million USD, 7.5%)

Only in the US and Chile did the total exported value increase compared to 2017. In other countries, the total exported value decreased. Over the last decade, the total exported value has changed as follows.

2013 was a record year for export value, after which the value decreased sharply. It has been growing again since 2015.

Imports

In 2018, the total imported value was 8.2 billion USD and the value increased by 1%. The total imported quantity was 8.2 million tons. The main importers were:

Germany (718.7 million USD, 8.7%)
Russia (517.4 million USD, 6.3%)
UK (503.6 million USD, 6.1%)
Indonesia (355.7 million USD, 4.3%)
India (304.0 million USD, 3.7%)

The imported value has risen in all countries except India. In Russia, the imported value grew by 27%.

Trends

High Demand for Apples in China

During the Chinese production season, the weather was bad which affected the quality and quantity of the apples. Due to the shortage of apples, prices in China have been rising. It is no longer profitable to export apples so most fruits are sold in the domestic market. Demand stays high nevertheless, so many apples are imported. Poland has observed a growth in its import share in China. French apples are increasingly popular in China as well.

The price of apples in China is increasing due to the US-China trade war. In 2018, the US was one of the main apple exporting countries to China, however due to the ongoing trade war, Chinese importers are looking at different, cheaper alternatives to the US apples.

Large Stocks on the European Market

At the end of 2018, around 5 million tons of apples were in stock in Europe, which is considerably higher than the year before. Many European countries saw record production volumes last year. Especially Poland and Italy saw their production volume rise significantly. Demand stayed behind, meaning that many of the apples were stored in cold storage. At the beginning of 2019, many of these apples were released from cold storage, creating a dip in the prices. Furthermore, Polish production is expected to be lower this year, as frost killed a large part of the crops. The apples in-stock can supplement the gap between demand and supply.

Low Production in the EU

The 2019 European apple harvest is expected to be 20% lower than in 2018. The total harvest is estimated to be 10.6 million tons. This is mainly due to a huge decrease in apples harvested in Poland. In 2018, 4.8 million tons were harvested, but it is expected that in 2019, only 2.7 to 3 million tons will be harvested, a decrease of 43.8%. Even though France will harvest 12% more apples than last year, the huge loss in Poland suppresses the total European harvest. The decreased production in Poland will probably also lead to higher prices on the Polish market. Currently, prices are very low due to the availability of low-quality stocks, but the decreased harvest is expected to raise these prices.

US Apple Exports hit with Tariff in the Indian Market

India imposed a retaliatory tariff for US apples in June 2019. In 2018, the US was the biggest apple exporting country to India with an export value of 165.4 million USD. India imported 21% of all Red Delicious apple produced in the US. Due to the tariff, the US apple export to India has already decreased by over 60% compared to the same period last year.