Implications of the "Disappearance" of Alaskan Snow Crab

Earlier in October, the Alaskan government canceled the 2022-2023 Bering Sea snow crab season as a result of lower stock than the regulatory threshold for opening the fishery. It will now focus on long-term conservation.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the decline in Bering Sea snow crab stock was "sudden" and derived from extreme oceanographic events, such as a marine heatwave in 2019. These oceanographic events have been attributed to climate change.

According to data from the same organization, the estimated 2022 biomass for legal-size male snow crab was 33.45 thousand mt, which represents a 44% decline compared to 2021 and is 70% below the previous 20-year average.

In 2021, total Alaskan snow crab landings totaled 20 thousand mt worth $219 million. It's also worth noting that the average price per kg, at $10.95/kg, was the highest on record. Total 2021 landings in volume terms rose 31% compared to the previous year, and were 7% above the previous 20-year average. This gives an indication of the value that will be lost with the fishery closing this year.

Source: Tridge and NOAA

In 2021, the US exported 5.4 thousand mt of Alaskan snow crab worth $87.5 million. The largest importer was Japan, which imported 1.7 thousand mt worth $29.7 million. Japan was followed by China, which imported 1.4 thousand mt worth $21.5 million, and then by Vietnam, which imported 1.1 million mt worth $18.7 million.

So far 2022 (January through August), the US has exported 1.3 thousand mt worth $25 million. In terms of volume, this represents a decline of 75% YoY, while in terms of value, a decline of 71% YoY. Compared to the January-August average for 2017-2021, 2022 levels are down 65% in volume and 57% in value. The biggest importers from January through August 2022 have been Japan, Mexico, Canada, China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The average export price in the same period was $19.14/kg, up 15% YoY. The average export price in the same period in Japan was $24.13/kg, up 41% YoY.

Source: Tridge and NOAA

No Alaskan snow crab this season means consumers will have to look for alternatives in either product or source. In addition, this is bullish for overall crab prices as total supply will dwindle.

In 2021, the US was by far the largest importer of frozen crab (all types) in the world, followed by Japan and China. Export-wise, Russia, Canada, China, and the US were the four major players. The US exported 7.2 thousand mt of frozen crab in 2021 (excluding re-exports), of which Alaskan snow crab was 70%.