Unlocking Agri-Export Opportunities: The Impact of China-Africa Zero Tariffs

Africa’s Trade Realignment in a Changing Global Tariff Environment

On June 12, 2025, China announced a zero-tariff policy that grants duty-free access to agricultural products from 53 African countries. This initiative is part of China’s broader strategy to deepen trade ties with the continent and open its vast market to a wider range of African products. The move is expected to significantly boost export opportunities across Africa, enabling local producers and agribusinesses to compete more effectively in the world’s second-largest economy. 

At the same time, the policy aligns with China’s efforts to diversify its agricultural import sources and reduce reliance on traditional suppliers. With an annual food import bill exceeding USD 150 billion and a rapidly expanding middle class seeking diverse, high-quality agricultural products, China is looking to Africa to help meet this rising demand. The removal of tariff barriers enhances the competitiveness of African exports, positioning them more favorably against established suppliers from Latin America, Southeast Asia, and other regions.

The China-Africa zero-tariff policy comes at a time of shifting global trade dynamics, particularly regarding the recent developments in United States (US) trade relations with its partner countries, including those in Africa. In Apr-25, the US implemented a baseline 10% tariff increase, raising concerns over its compatibility with existing trade agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This policy shift has weakened the benefits of AGOA, which had previously granted many African products duty-free access to the US market. AGOA is set to expire in Sep-25 and its future remains uncertain. The sudden tariff increase, coupled with the scheduled end of a postponement on even higher tariffs targeting countries with trade deficits with the US, effective from July 9, is expected to strain US-Africa trade relations further. 

Africa’s Agri-Exports Expected to Soar as China Opens Market Through Duty-Free Access

In contrast, China’s zero-tariff initiative positions itself as a more favorable and timely alternative for African economies seeking stable, long-term export partnerships. This policy is especially advantageous for Africa’s agricultural sector, as it grants tariff-free entry for a broad range of products, including coffee, cocoa, tea, nuts, fruits, and meat. By removing these trade barriers, the initiative offers African exporters a valuable opportunity to redirect trade flows toward a more accessible and rapidly growing market, strengthening resilience and boosting export-driven growth.

For instance, the zero-tariff policy creates a strong opportunity for African coffee, particularly from East Africa, to expand its footprint in the Chinese market. Ethiopian coffee, known for its high-quality Arabica beans, has already made significant inroads. In 2024, Ethiopia’s coffee export value to China reached USD 102.46 million, marking a significant 377.67% increase compared to 2020. With duty-free access now in place, Ethiopian coffee is well-positioned to grow its market share further and compete with established exporters like Brazil and Colombia by leveraging its reputation for producing some of the world’s finest Arabica coffee.

Figure 1. Africa’s Agri-Product Exports to China from 2020 to 2024

Similarly, the tea sector stands to benefit greatly from this policy shift, especially in countries like Kenya, Burundi, Uganda, and Malawi. In particular, Kenya has already seen strong export growth to China. In 2024, Kenyan tea exports reached USD 15.43 million, up by 243.65% from 2020, signaling increasing demand for its tea in the Chinese market. This trend presents a valuable opportunity for Kenya’s tea industry, especially in orthodox and specialty teas, to strengthen its presence and become a competitive player alongside major exporters such as India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam.

West Africa’s cocoa exports are also expected to benefit significantly from China’s new zero-tariff policy. In 2024, the leading African cocoa exporters to China by value were Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. Togo’s cocoa exports have shown steady growth over the past five years, reaching USD 19.79 million in 2024. The new duty-free access provides a timely opportunity for Togo to further expand its market share in China.

Meanwhile, Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has seen a decline in cocoa exports to China over the past five years. This downturn is likely due to a shifting focus to higher-paying buyers as global prices rose, efforts to reach Europe before the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) enforcement begins in Jan-26, and reduced output linked to climate-related challenges. Despite the decline, the zero-tariff policy offers Ivory Coast a chance to rebuild its presence in the Chinese market, potentially returning to 2020 export levels. 

Historically, Ivory Coast has relied heavily on access to major markets like the US and Europe. However, the recent 21% US tariff hike has made Ivorian cocoa less competitive, prompting American buyers to seek lower-cost alternatives in Latin America and Southeast Asia. In response, many Ivorian exporters are now pivoting to alternative markets, primarily China, which now offers duty-free entry for African agricultural products. Others are working to strengthen their position in European markets, though this requires meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.

Other agricultural sectors, particularly the fruit section, are expected to benefit from China’s tariff-free access. For instance, South Africa is well-positioned to expand its market share in China for citrus fruits, especially as the US recently raised tariffs on citrus imports to as high as 30%. China already sources most of its citrus from South Africa, which reached USD 134.80 million in export value in 2024, a figure expected to rise under the new trade framework. Similarly, South African grapes and apples are projected to gain traction in China, competing with major suppliers such as Peru, Australia, and Chile. Kenya’s avocado exports are also anticipated to grow, taking advantage of the improved market access to compete with shipments from Peru, Chile, and New Zealand.

Build a Resilient Future for Africa’s Agri-Exports

Looking ahead, China–Africa trade relations are expected to deepen further as both partners continue to reap mutual benefits. With export volumes projected to grow under the zero-tariff framework, African governments must step up their support for agricultural producers, offering financial incentives, subsidies, and technical assistance to expand production and pursue value addition. Processing raw commodities into higher-value products will enhance profitability and attract premium buyers in China and beyond. 

There is also a need to invest in logistical infrastructure, from cold chains and warehousing to efficient port systems, to ensure smooth, reliable transit of goods from Africa to China. Exporters should adopt modern technologies, data analytics, and platforms like Tridge to support better decision-making, and agile market diversification, especially in times of policy changes as witnessed in 2025.

However, while China offers significant opportunities, African exporters should be cautious about over-relying on a single market. A robust diversification strategy is essential, targeting regions such as the European Union (EU), the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. This requires alignment with market-specific standards, including investments in sustainability, traceability, and certifications such as halal and kosher. Through that, African agri-exporters can build long-term resilience and competitiveness in an increasingly changing global trade landscape.