Webinar Recap: Impact of Tariff Adjustments and Geopolitical Shifts on Key Commodity Markets

Host: Bojan Mijatovic - Global Market Analyst (Serbia)

Presenter: Mzingaye Ndubiwa - Global Market Analyst - (South Africa)

Speakers: Alper Akkurt - Global Supply Chain Manager (Türkiye), Geulah Bang - Principal (HQ), Victor Langat - Global Market Analyst (Kenya)

Agenda:

• The Current State of Play: Tariffs and Geopolitical Hotspots
• Supply Chain Impacts and Future Outlook
• Panel Discussion

The Current State of Play: Tariffs and Geopolitical Hotspots

A rapid succession of the United States (US) led tariff adjustments and escalating geopolitical friction is fundamentally reshaping the global agri-food landscape in 2025. The stage was set on February 1, 2025, when the US announced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports, with significant increments for select nations, including a staggering 145% for China. This policy swiftly implemented, with initial 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports taking effect by February 4. The situation intensified between March 3 and 4 as tariffs on China doubled to 20% and the 25% tariffs on North American neighbors expanded. China's swift retaliation on March 10 imposed its own 15% tariffs on key US commodities, such as chicken, wheat, and corn, and 10% tariffs on others, including soy and pork. The US further broadened its trade offensive on April 2 with a sweeping 10% universal tariff and targeted hikes of up to 50% on select agricultural products, which became mandatory on April 10. Compounding these direct trade conflicts are external pressures such as the Red Sea shipping crisis, which has inflated freight rates by 30-60%, the unstable Black Sea grain corridor, and naval disputes in the South China Sea, all of which are forcing a global realignment toward diversified overland routes and absorbing higher insurance costs into food prices.

Figure 1. 2025 US Agricultural Tariff Timeline

Source: Tridge

Supply Chain Impacts and Future Outlook

The global agri-food trade in 2025 is defined by escalating, data-driven retaliations, and significant market dislocations. The US- European Union (EU) trade relationship deteriorated following a 20% US tariff on steel and aluminum in Feb-25, which prompted a 25% EU retaliation in April on goods such as soybeans and alcoholic beverages, such as whiskey and wine,, resulting in a 38% year-on-year (YoY) decline in California wine exports to the EU in Q2-2025. 

Amid escalating trade tensions in 2025, China is strategically shifting its soybean import volumes away from the US and toward Brazil, cementing Brazil's role as its top agricultural supplier. Concurrently, the US-China tariff war intensified dramatically; by Apr-25, average US tariffs on Chinese exports surged to 124.1%, a more than six-fold increase from January, triggering Chinese countermeasures that raised their average tariff on US exports to 147.6%. These trade frictions are compounded by domestic pressures. This is particularly notable in the US beef sector, where the cattle population at its lowest since 1951 has pushed wholesale lean beef prices to a record USD 8.75 per kilogram (kg) in Mar-25 and Free on Board (FOB) prices to USD 9.62/kg in Feb-25. The logistical consequences are stark: after the global freight price averaged USD 2,045.93 per container in Apr-25, a US-China tariff rollback in May triggered a sharp rebound in transpacific shipping rates, as importers began front-loading shipments ahead of further tariff deadlines in Jul-25 and Aug-25.

Figure 2. Comparison of Chinese Imports of Soybeans from the US and Brazil

Sources: Tridge

Figure 3. South Korea’s Beef Import Trends from the US and Australia

Source: Tridge

Panel Discussion:

During the panel discussion, speakers Alper Akkurt, Geulah Bang, and Victor Langat explored the specifics of the tariff adjustments, role of technology and data analytics, as well as the negative impact of geopolitical instability on supply chains and actionable advice for agricultural stakeholders.

On the question about the most significant tariff adjustments or geopolitical events in the past year, Tridge experts gave their thoughts on the matter. Akkurt, Langat, and Bang agreed that the past year in global agri-food markets has been defined by a series of significant geopolitical and tariff-related shocks that have collectively forced a fundamental shift from cost-based procurement to a focus on supply chain security and diversification. The disruption of the Black Sea grain corridor sent immediate shockwaves through Europe and the Middle East, creating intense price volatility and compelling nations like Türkiye to abandon established trade routes for more costly and logistically complex alternatives. 

This move toward prioritizing reliability over price was mirrored in Africa, where the implementation of a 10% US tariff undermined the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). It also made key exports like citrus, cocoa, and coffee less competitive and pushed exporters to pivot toward new markets, particularly China, which introduced a timely zero-tariff initiative. Further amplifying this trend, the escalating US-China trade tensions have created a sense of crisis for major food-importing nations like South Korea, whose low self-sufficiency and reliance on both US and China have made diversification an urgent national security issue, prompting a re-evaluation of its historically strict import policies to secure new partners in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

Moving on to the second question of the role of technology, Langat, Bang, and Akkurt concurred that technology, data analytics, and platforms like Tridge have become indispensable for navigating the complexities of modern commodity trading, enabling businesses to shift from a reactive to a proactive stance in the face of tariff volatility and geopolitical instability. By providing real-time, context-rich intelligence rather than just raw data, these tools offer unprecedented visibility across the entire supply chain, allowing companies to anticipate disruptions and strategically pivot with agility. 

For instance, when faced with sudden tariff threats, a US-based guacamole producer was able to explore alternative avocado suppliers in Latin America instantly. At the same time, a Korean coffee franchise successfully mitigated rising costs by identifying and transitioning to a new, more economical source in Ethiopia, resulting in millions of dollars in savings. Similarly, African exporters burdened by the latest US tariffs can use these platforms to identify and connect with verified buyers in more favorable, zero-tariff markets, such as China. Ultimately, these solutions empower businesses not only to manage risk but also to take control of uncertainty, reduce trial-and-error in sourcing, and uncover significant cost-saving and trading opportunities that were previously unidentifiable.

Finally, the Tridge experts shed some light on how tariff wars and geopolitical instability impact supply chains, and pointed that tariff wars and geopolitical instability fundamentally erode the consistency and predictability that agricultural supply chains rely on, creating a landscape where uncertainty, rather than manageable cost fluctuations, becomes the primary operational threat. To navigate this, the most critical advice for agricultural stakeholders is to abandon rigid, traditional pipelines in favor of building flexible, resilient ecosystems. 

This strategy rests on three core pillars. First, aggressive diversification of both sourcing origins and demand channels, making multi-sourcing the default plan. Second, the adoption of advanced intelligence platforms and AI tools to gain real-time market awareness and automate operational complexities, thereby freeing up human capital for strategic decision-making. Third, a fundamental shift from exporting raw commodities to investing in local processing and value-added products.. By embracing value addition—such as the Ivory Coast transitioning from exporting raw cocoa beans to producing its own chocolate—stakeholders can capture higher margins, access new consumer markets, and build a more robust defense against the volatility that now characterizes global trade.

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