China’s Food Trade Pivot: Brazil Takes the Lead as US Loses Ground

China’s trade relationship with the United States (US) remains strained in 2025, marked by an intensifying cycle of retaliatory tariffs. As of Apr-25, average US tariffs on Chinese exports surged to 124.1%—more than 40 times higher than pre-2018 levels and six times higher than the 20.8% average recorded at the start of the second Trump administration in Jan-25. In response, China implemented three rounds of countermeasures, raising its average tariff on US exports to 147.6%. The scope of these tariffs also expanded significantly, from initially covering 58.3% of US exports, to 63.0%, and eventually to 100% by April 10, when an 84% retaliatory tariff was imposed on all US imports.

Figure 1. US-China tariff rates toward each other and rest of world (ROW)

China Strengthens Brazil Trade Relations Amid US Sanctions

In the face of this prolonged trade war, China has accelerated efforts to diversify its trading relationships. A key strategic pivot has been toward Brazil, which is another major economy affected by US trade policies. The two countries have deepened their bilateral ties, with the Brazilian president scheduled to visit China in Apr-25 for the third summit with his Chinese counterpart since 2023. A fourth meeting is planned for Jul-25, highlighting a shared commitment to reducing reliance on US-centric trade networks.

China is already Brazil’s largest trading partner, and both countries see significant mutual benefit in expanding trade, particularly in agriculture. Strengthening this alliance offers China an opportunity to buffer itself against US tariffs, while Brazil gains access to a vast and growing consumer market.

US–China Soybean Trade Faces Disruption from Tariff War

An example of the importance of the relationship between China and Brazil is the case of soybean imports to China. Historically,  China and US trade has centered around soybeans. However, China has been looking to other countries in recent years, such as Brazil, thereby reducing its reliance on the US. As a result, Chinese imports of US soybeans have dropped significantly over the past three years. According to ITC Trade Map, China imported 22.13 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans from the US in 2024, a significant 31.5% drop from 32.3 mmt in 2021. Conversely, China ramped up its soybeans imports from Brazil to 74.65 mmt in 2024, a notable 28.4% rise from 58.15 mmt in 2021. 

Figure 2. Comparison of Chinese Imports of Soybeans from the US and Brazil

The case is similar when it comes to corn. The US has been China’s dominant supplier over the past decade. However, China is making a pronounced shift towards Brazil in recent years. According to ITC Trade Map, China imported 19.83 mmt of corn from the US in 2021 and none from Brazil. However, this dynamic has now shifted drastically, with China importing only 2.07 mmt from the US in 2024, down 89.6% in just three years. Conversely, during the same period Chinese imports of Brazilian corn grew to 6.47 mmt, allowing Brazil to overtake the US as China’s leading soybean supplier.

Figure 3. Corn Tradeflow Between China and its Top 10 Partners

China Expands Global Trade Ties Beyond the US

Evidently, Brazil has rapidly become China’s most vital agricultural partner. According to Logísticos, Brazil exported USD 59 billion worth of agricultural goods to China in 2023—roughly 25% of China’s total agricultural imports. As both countries look to strengthen ties to boost bilateral trade, Brazil is expected to command a larger share of the Chinese market in the coming years.

In addition to reinforcing ties with Brazil, China is also actively pursuing a regional trade deal with the European Union (EU) and enhancing collaboration within the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc. As global trade undergoes realignment amid rising protectionism, the China–Brazil agricultural alliance stands out as a pragmatic and mutually beneficial response—one that could reshape global supply chains in the years ahead.