Zimbabwe maize output set for 300% increase in 2021

Published 2021년 3월 4일

Zimbabwe’s maize harvest is forecast to reach 2.8 million tonnes in 2021, increasing by more than 300% from the 900K tonnes of maize harvested in 2020. The country’s high rainfall is expected to increase output during the 2020/21 production season. 1.8 million tonnes of harvest are set to be purchased by the state-owned grains company, the Grain Marketing Board (GMB). The remaining output is set to be stored by the GMB and may lead to the country importing significantly less maize from South Africa this year, following an import value of USD 134.7 million in 2020.

Zimbabwe experiences a good rainfall season

Zimbabwe experienced excellent rainfall during the rainfall season, which is expected to last six full months, from October 2020 until March 2021. The favorable weather has significantly boosted the country’s dam capacity. According to the Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA), as of 25 February 2021, most of the country’s dams had recorded significant year on year gains, with Kariba dam, a critical water source for the country, at 31.4% capacity, a 20% increase from the previous year. According to the Zimbabwean Ministry of Information, improved rainfall has been the main contributor to the country’s improved maize harvest.

Zimbabwe National Dam Average Capacity in 2021

Source: Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA)

Dam levels in the country have reached record-breaking levels in 2021. By 1 March 2021, the national dam level average had risen to 95.9%, a 56.9% gain since the beginning of the year, which is considered to be the highest increase since 1980. Improved rainfall has brought much-needed relief to the country following two consecutive years of devastating droughts, which lowered maize harvests to 900K tonnes, half of its the country’s annual maize requirements. This failure to meet the national consumption targets led to a maize shortage in the country.

The Grain Marketing Board (GMB) anticipates that the harvest may reach more than 3.1 million tonnes this season, leading to a surplus of 1.2 million tonnes of maize after all domestic demand is met. As a result, the GMB has started expanding its storage capacity to hold the expected surplus quantities, with 5 of the 12 silo facilities undergoing significant refurbishments. The GMB is also planning to use private silos to store an additional 2.5 million tonnes in this way collectively.

Increased maize output set to reduce imports

Over the past years, Zimbabwe has imported significant maize from countries such as South Africa and Tanzania. However, this year’s expected bumper harvest may lead to Zimbabwean maize imports diminishing greatly this season, leading to the government saving millions of dollars in maize imports. In 2019, the country imported USD 26.7 million, of which USD 9.2 million worth of maize was purchased from South Africa. Zimbabwe was South Africa’s largest maize market in 2020, purchasing a value of USD 134.7 million. South Africa may therefore need to focus on other maize markets in 2021, such as the Republic of Korea, Botswana, Mozambique, and Chinese Taipei, to make up for the expected losses from the Zimbabwean market.

Zimbabwean Maize Imports from South Africa