In W18 in the coffee landscape, On May 2, July Robusta coffee closed up 0.6% at USD 2,424/MT on ICE due to tight supplies following a recovery in demand and some roasters looking to increase the proportion of less expensive Robusta beans in blends at the expense of Arabica beans. However, on May 4, amid worries about demand and bets that prices have peaked for the time being despite still-tight supply, Robusta coffee slipped 0.5% to USD 2,412/MT. On May 5, July Robusta coffee increased 2.4%, reaching USD 2,471/MT after reaching a 12-year high in W17 in the face of escalating worries about the market for coffee due to macroeconomic headwinds. As for Arabica coffee, on May 2, July Arabica was up 0.6% to trade at 186.75 cents/lb as a result of tighter supplies following ICE's Tuesday stock inspection of arabica coffee, which saw a drop to 671,795 bags, the lowest level in four and a half months. On May 4, the price fell to its lowest level since April 10, trading at 181.510 cents/lb. Arabica supply is still limited because Brazil's harvest is just getting started and stocks are low. After reaching a 3-and-a-half-week low on Thursday, July arabica increased 2.8% on May 5 to settle at 188.05 cents/lb. Overall, W18 saw a 1.1% increase.
In March, the sixth month of the 2022/23 harvest, global coffee exports totaled 12.02M 60-kg bags, a decrease of 9.3% YoY. From January to March of 2023, 16K MT of coffee was exported from Peru worth USD 76M, reflecting a drop of more than 70% in both volume and value compared to the 60K MT for USD 275M reached in 2022. This is primarily due to Peru's unpredictable weather and social protests that stopped the key production regions' roadways (Cajamarca, Junín, and San Martín). More than 50% of Peruvian coffee is sent to Europe which will be impacted by the new EU standard, which mandates that agricultural products have a guarantee that they do not come from deforested areas and that they come from recognised land. Currently, 80% of the land in Peru used for coffee production is not recognised, meaning it does not have a property title. Therefore, the National Coffee Board (JNC) points out that it is urgent to prepare a Plan for the Reconversion of Coffee Farming, associated with zero carbon. Colombian coffee production in April was 566K 60-kg bags, a 25% YoY decrease due to heavy rains brought on by the La Niña weather phenomenon and high fertiliser prices. Additionally, Colombian exports keep declining. Data from the FNC show that in April, the decline was 15% YoY, with 719K bags compared to 848K bags in April 2022. The wholesale price of Brazilian coffee beans has traded up to USD 6.32/kg in W18, a 9% WoW increase. The price has gone up owing to concerns about Brazilian coffee's delayed harvest and a potential decline in global coffee supply.
At the Specialty Coffee Expo (SCE), which took place in Portland, Oregon, from April 21 to 23, Indonesia's specialty coffee transactions totaled USD 20.6M, an increase of 5.87% YoY from USD 19.5M. Vietnamese coffee is now 32% more expensive than it was four months ago, with prices ranging between USD 2.17-2.20/kg. Vietnam exported 15.3K MT of coffee to the US market in March, valued at USD 34.52M, an increase of 18.4% and 15.8% YoY respectively. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) reports that during the 2021/22 campaign, 12.87M bags (60 kg) were consumed across the African continent. With a 2.6% YoY increase, this volume sets a new record for the area, where consumption has been continuously increasing since 2017/2018. Côte d'Ivoire is the African country whose consumption has increased the most YoY, with 50%, followed by Cameroon (25.5%), Morocco (14.7%), South Africa (12.7%), and Nigeria (9.8%).
