In W18 in the rice landscape, the FAO warns that El Nino, a weather event that can trigger severe drought conditions over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, is expected to have a negative impact on India’s corn, soybean, and rice production. However, the effects of El Nino are difficult to predict because no two events are alike in terms of strength, duration, or localized mitigation. In Q1, Thailand’s rice exports totaled 2.06MMT, valued at USD 1.12B, up 8.48% YoY in volume and an increase of 29.26% YoY in value. Thai rice shipments were mainly destined for Iraq (16.38%), Indonesia (13.08%), the US (8.62%), South Africa (8.24%), and Senegal (5.86%). The Thai Commerce Ministry expects rice exports in 2023 to reach 7.5-8MMT. In the first four months of 2023, Vietnamese rice exports reached 2.95MMT, valued at USD 1.56B, up 43.6% in volume and 54.5% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, Vietnamese rice shipments in April 2023 reached 1.1MMT with a value of USD 573.9M.
The USDA indicates that as of April 30th, US farmers had sown 63% of the 2023 rice area, 21% points ahead of the previous year and 14% ahead of the 5-year average, with Louisiana and Texas having the most progress in planting rice, with 89% and 83% planted, respectively. Furthermore, 39% of the country's rice area had emerged, 16% points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of the 5-year average. IRGA reports that, until W17, rice harvesting in major producing regions in Brazil was in the final stretch, where Rio Grande do Sul had reached 93.29%, Campanha region (97.39%), the Outer Coastal Plain (96.47%), the Internal Coastal Plain (94.61%), the South Zone (94%), Fronteira Oeste (91.46%), and the Central region (87.92%). IRGA also estimates Brazilian rice production in the 2022/23 season to reach approximately 7.1MMT. In Russia, Crimean farmers estimate 2023 rice harvesting to reach 20K MT, three times more than in 2022 when they harvested 6K MT, having allocated about 3K ha for the crop and the volume of water supply is estimated to be almost 145M cubic meters.
BPS outlines that, in April 2023 in Indonesia, the price of harvested dry unhusked rice increased by 2.4% MoM and 23.62% YoY, while milled dry unhusked rice rose by 0.90% MoM and 20.32% YoY. Meanwhile, the price of Indonesian rice at the mill decreased by 0.14% MoM, but increased by 0.42% MoM and 15.66% YoY at the wholesale level. Similarly, Indonesian retail rice prices increased by 0.48% MoM and 11.34% YoY. The Philippines expects to become fully self-sufficient in rice production by 2027, the plan coming after previous governments fell short of their targets due to policy mistakes and the impact of extreme weather that reduced rice yields in the country. As the world's second-largest rice import market after China, the Philippines currently imports more than 3MMT of rice annually, mainly from Vietnam, to increase domestic supply and keep prices stable. The plan forecasts the annual domestic rice supply to be stable at 24.99-26.86MMT and aims to limit the annual increase in rice prices to less than 1%, increase farmers' incomes by 54%, and maintain sufficient buffer reserves. Lastly, the Federal Government of Nigeria declared a review of the Import Adjustment Tax (IAT) in line with the implementation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Common External Tariff (CET) for 2022/26. Therefore, according to the 2023 revised document, tariffs on rice packaging of more than 5kg or in bulk and in packing of 5kg or less have been raised to 60% from 50%.
