1. Weekly Price Overview

Tight Supplies and Seasonal Demand Drive Global Beef Prices Higher

In W50, beef prices in the European Union (EU) averaged USD 8.35 per kilogram (kg), reflecting a 0.94% week-on-week (WoW) rise, a 1.73% month-on-month (MoM) increase, and a 42.61% year-on-year (YoY) uptick. This upward momentum is driven by tight cattle supplies amid strong consumer demand and reduced production levels. The approaching Christmas holiday further intensified market pressure, pushing retail beef prices to record highs.

In Brazil, beef prices edged up by 0.27% WoW to USD 3.95/kg, marking a 15.21% YoY rise but a 2.54% MoM decline. This upward trend was supported by strong export demand and constrained domestic cattle availability. It is worth noting that elevated beef prices have affected consumption patterns, with price-sensitive consumers increasingly shifting toward cheaper protein alternatives such as chicken and pork. Seasonal demand linked to the Christmas period has also widened the price gap between premium cuts and lower-value products.

In the United States (US), tightening supply conditions continued to underpin higher prices. Live cattle futures rose by 1.17% WoW, 4.86% MoM, and 20.11% YoY to USD 5.07/kg. The price strength reflects the smallest national cattle inventory since the 1950s, combined with resilient domestic demand. Notably, prices have remained firm toward year-end, defying the typical seasonal softening associated with winter months and highlighting the severity of current supply constraints.

In contrast, Argentina recorded a short-term price correction. Beef prices averaged USD 2.79/kg, down 1.45% WoW, although they remained slightly higher by 0.43% MoM and 26.90% YoY. The weekly decline could be attributed to subdued demand following the December 8 Immaculate Conception Day holiday. Nevertheless, the strong annual price increase indicates a structurally tight market, and prices are expected to rebound as Christmas-driven demand picks up.

2. Price Analysis

Price Sensitivity Drives Resistance to Mercosur Beef in the EU and Beyond

Beef has become a key pressure point in the EU–Mercosur trade negotiations, as European policymakers seek to limit the downside risks to domestic cattle prices. The European Commission initially proposed a safeguard mechanism that would allow preferential beef imports from Mercosur to be suspended if import volumes increased by more than 10% YoY or if prices declined by the same margin in one or more EU member states. However, the European Parliament pushed for a stricter threshold of 5% compared with a three-year import average. After negotiations, EU institutions agreed on an 8% trigger, reflecting concerns that even relatively small increases in beef supply could exert strong downward pressure on EU farmgate prices, which are already sensitive to imported competition.

These price concerns have been central to opposition from France, Italy, and European farm unions. They argue that increased inflows of lower-priced South American beef would weaken price stability for EU producers. The postponement of the agreement’s signing, originally scheduled for December 13, 2025, and now slated for January 12, 2026, was driven largely by fears that domestic beef prices could fall if safeguards are perceived as insufficient. Thousands of farmers protesting in Brussels highlighted the risk that additional Mercosur beef, even under quotas, could depress cattle prices across the EU, particularly in cost-intensive production systems that struggle to compete on price alone.

On the export side, Brazil’s beef price dynamics underline why EU producers are concerned. Between Jan-25 and Nov-25, Brazil exported 3.15 million metric tons (mmt) of beef, up 18.3% YoY, generating USD 16.18 billion in revenue, an increase of 37.5% YoY. This implies higher volumes and stronger average export prices, supported by improved market access and Brazil’s upgraded sanitary status as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free without vaccination. By year-end, exports are expected to approach 3.5 mmt with revenues of around USD 17 billion, reinforcing Brazil’s ability to supply large volumes of competitively priced beef to global markets, including the EU.

Similar price-based tensions are visible in Mexico, where cattle producers warn that beef imports, around 120 thousand metric tons (mt) from Brazil in 2025, are unnecessary given domestic surpluses. Mexico expects an additional 1.2 million head of cattle for fattening in 2026, equivalent to about 396 thousand mt of carcass weight, more than double current import volumes. Producer groups caution that continued imports could trigger a sharp fall in domestic cattle prices, threatening the livelihoods of over 750,000 small and medium-scale farmers.

3. Strategic Recommendations

Strategic Responses to Tight Beef Supplies and Rising Prices

In the EU, where beef prices have reached USD 8.35/kg amid tight supplies and strong seasonal demand, policy and industry responses should focus on stabilizing prices without undermining market openness. The agreed 8% safeguard trigger under the EU–Mercosur framework should be complemented by faster, country-level monitoring to allow targeted interventions where price pressure is most acute. On the demand side, retailers can promote secondary cuts and processed beef products during peak periods such as Christmas to reduce pressure on premium cuts and moderate retail price inflation.

Benefiting from strong export demand and prices, Brazil should aim to balance export growth with domestic market stability. Exporters can segment markets more deliberately by directing high-value cuts to premium destinations while supplying lower-value cuts domestically to limit consumer substitution toward cheaper proteins. Expanding the use of forward contracts and price-hedging tools between processors and producers would help smooth income volatility, while continued investment in feedlot efficiency and genetics can improve cattle availability over time and reduce sharp seasonal price swings.

In the US, strategies should prioritize gradual supply recovery alongside price-risk management. Incentives for heifer retention, pasture restoration, and drought-resilient grazing systems can support sustainable herd rebuilding without triggering abrupt price corrections. Meanwhile, processors and retailers should rely more on futures markets and long-term supply contracts to manage elevated prices that are persisting beyond normal seasonal patterns, while offering smaller pack sizes and mixed-protein options to sustain consumer demand.

For Argentina and Mexico, where price volatility is shaped by short-term demand shifts and looming supply surpluses, proactive market management is critical. Argentina can use temporary price dips to build inventories for anticipated holiday-driven demand rebounds, supported by more predictable export policies. In Mexico, where domestic surpluses far exceed imports, calibrated import controls linked to domestic price indicators, rather than outright bans, combined with efforts to stimulate domestic consumption and develop export outlets would help prevent price collapses and protect producer incomes.