W8 Dairy Update: US Dairy Cull Cow Marketing Remains Below 2023 Levels, Brazil Sees Decline in Livestock Semen Sales

Published 2024년 3월 1일

In W8 in the dairy landscape, data from the USDA shows that despite a recent uptick in the US, dairy cull cow marketing for beef slaughter remains below 2023 levels, with Jan-24 seeing 250.2 thousand heads, the lowest January total since 2010. Evident for 23 consecutive weeks up to February 10, 2024, the trend of declining culling activity, with a cumulative deficit of 151 thousand head compared to the same period in 2023, is influenced by factors like herd size and replacement heifer availability. Meanwhile, semen sales for both beef and dairy livestock in Brazil declined in 2023, with a total of 22.5 million doses sold, attributed to dropping prices of weaned animals for beef cattle and potential herd re-composition efforts for dairy cattle. Despite an overall decrease in sales, Brazil's semen exports only marginally declined by 0.9% YoY, with Mercosur countries remaining primary destinations and emerging markets like India showing promise.

US Dairy Cull Cow Marketing Remains Below 2023 Levels Despite Upward Trend

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that the marketing of dairy cull cows for beef slaughter in the United States (US) remains below 2023 levels despite a recent increase. The estimated number of dairy cull cows marketed for beef in Jan-24 was 250.2 thousand heads, representing a 25.5-thousand head increase from Dec-23. However, this figure remains 47.7 thousand heads lower than Jan-23 and marks the lowest January total since 2010.

As of February 10, 2024, USDA data indicates that dairy cow culling for beef has fallen below year-ago levels for 23 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative deficit of 151 thousand head compared to the same period in 2023. While Jan-24 saw a higher number of slaughter days compared to Jan-23, the average daily slaughter rate remained lower, reflecting a decrease of approximately 2.19 thousand heads per business day. The estimated national dairy cow herd size was at 9.33 million heads in Jan-24, reflecting a slight decline from Dec-23. This translates to a January culling rate of approximately 2.7% of the herd.

Year-to-date dairy cull cow slaughter for the period Jan-23 to Dec-23 interval currently stands at roughly 250.2 thousand heads, down 47.7 heads compared to the same period in 2023. While a recent uptick in dairy cow slaughter is observed, the overall trend indicates a sustained decline in culling activity compared to 2023. This trend is likely influenced by a combination of factors related to herd size and the limited availability of replacement heifers.

Brazil's Semen Sales for Beef Cattle Decline in 2023 Despite Growth in Dairy Sector

Data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) and the Brazilian Association of Artificial Insemination (ASBIA) reveals a decline in overall semen sales for both beef and dairy livestock in Brazil during 2023. Total semen sales in 2023 reached 22.5 million doses, representing a 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) decrease compared to the 31.1 million doses sold in 2022.

Semen sales for beef cattle experienced a 5.4% YoY decline, following a larger 9.33% decrease observed between 2021 and 2022. This decline is attributed to consistently dropping prices of weaned animals, leading to increased herd culling and reduced investment in genetic improvement. Conversely, semen sales for dairy cattle witnessed a 6.44% YoY increase in 2023. This growth is attributed to potential herd re-composition efforts following a period of heightened culling due to declining milk prices and rising costs during the pandemic. Although overall sales declined, Brazil's semen exports experienced a marginal 0.9% YoY decrease. Mercosur countries remain the primary export destination, while new markets like India are emerging.

The percentage of inseminated female bovine animals in Brazil remains relatively low, with 23.1% for beef and 12.3% for dairy, indicating potential for further adoption of artificial insemination technologies. The continued expansion of genetic improvement technologies, when implemented strategically and accompanied by effective planning, can enhance both production and financial performance within the Brazilian livestock industry.