Australia Could Be Stuck With an Oversupply of Almonds, Despite Record Exports

Published 2022년 11월 2일

Halfway through the Australian 2022/23 marketing year, 53,215 mt of almonds (on a kernel basis) have been exported, the third highest on record. Exports in August were 15,929 mt, the highest monthly exports on record. However, exports are far below expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Australia could be stuck with massive ending stocks of close to 38-43,000 mt at the end of the marketing year, a stocks-to-use ratio of 30-35%.

Australia’s almond production has been increasing rapidly over the past decade, almost tripling from 10 years ago and almost doubling from 5 years ago. Production reached a record 143,805 mt in 2022, according to the Almond Board of Australia’s (ABA) latest crop estimate.

At the start of 2022/23 MY, it was widely accepted that it will also be a record year in terms of exports. However, the ripple effects of clogged California harbors earlier in 2022, are still affecting Australian exports. Australia’s harvest concludes at the end of April, and the main export season runs from May to October. This is the opposite of the main export season in the US, which runs from August to March. The US export season was turned on its head by logistic bottlenecks earlier in 2022. When most of the backlogs started clearing, and almonds could again flow out of California, it was already the month of May, and also the peak export season in Australia. This meant almonds from the US and Australia were coming to the market at the same time. For most of Australia’s 2022/23 MY, exports hovered close to the 5-year average, which was disappointing given the expectations early in the marketing year. However, in August, Australia recorded record monthly exports, of 15,929 mt. This is normally a time when Australia’s exports are on the decrease because US almonds start coming to the market.

Source: Almond Board of Australia

From March to August, Australia exported 53,215 mt of almonds (on a kernel basis). This is fairly close to the last marketing year’s 53,472 mt over the same period. Exports totaled 86,871 mt in the last marketing year, but the 2022/23 export season might yet break previous records. China has been favoring Australian almonds, boosting hopes of record exports in 2022/23. Australia exported 27,579 mt of almonds (on a kernel basis) to China in the first 6 months of the marketing year, an increase of 37% from the same period last year. Australian suppliers will hope to export as much as 90-95,000 mt of almonds this marketing year, however, ending stocks could still be as high as 38-43,000 mt at the end of the season - a stocks-to-use ratio of 30-35%.