Australia to reap larger wheat crop, export restrictions to counter supply pressure

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026. Australian wheat prices are expected to exhibit more bearishness in early 2026, as they track significant global wheat supply, though export capacity limitations due to strong sales of other winter crops could support prices. Australian wheat prices were largely rangebound for much of 2025, as thin imports from China, alongside economic and demand concerns, curbed buyer appetite for forward coverage, based on data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. Australia is on track to reap a larger wheat crop following improvements in weather across most states, according to the Australian Bureau of Resource Economics and Sciences. ABARES pegged MY 2025-26 wheat production 4% higher at 35.6 million mt in its latest report Dec. 2, on the lower end of trade estimates at 35-37 million mt, according to Australian exporters. “Our expectations for [MY 2025-26] ...