Decreased Volume of Pears in South Africa Will Hinder Trade In 2023 after Consecutive Growth

Published 2023년 6월 18일

Due to severe weather impacts and shrinking acreage under pears, South African (SA) pear production is expected to fall 7.15% YoY to 470,000 mt in 2023. SA pear exports to Russia have gradually increased over the last five years, with the Netherlands having the most significant yearly increase in value. In Asia, more growth is projected due to signed phytosanitary and trade protocols. Tariff adjustments increased South Africa's pear exports to India by 34% YoY in 2022. In inter-African trade, some countries are still unable to comply with the cold chain supply due to a lack of infrastructure, hindering export. On the other side, overseas trade is expanding due to lower transportation costs and growing demand from China, but adverse weather has reduced export quantities overall.

The pear production in South Africa is predicted to drop 7.15% YoY to 470,000 mt in MY 2022/23 following a record harvest in the previous year of 506,200 mt. This is primarily due to adverse weather and slighter area expansion under new plantations. Last year, the stage was set for a perfect season production-wise: favorable weather, abundant fruit setting, and pear orchards entering full display with almost 13,000 ha under pear trees in 2021. Since then, the area under pears has been decreasing, fueled by increased input and storage costs and weaker sales, and expectations are that the pear trade will suffer in 2023 due to the aforementioned factors.

Source: TradeMap and Tridge

The export of SA pears to the Russian market has steadily grown in the past five years. From 33,511 mt in 2018, increasing 54.41% in 2022 to 51,747 mt, and it is expected to continue rising in 2023. On the other side, the Netherlands has shown the highest yearly increase in terms of value, with a 37.15% YoY jump to USD 42.5M in 2022. Despite the strong positions of SA’s pears in the EU and Russia, further expansion is expected in Asia. After the Indian government allowed in-transit cold treatment for SA apple and pear exports, South Africa's pear exports to India increased by over 34% YoY up to 28,507 mt in 2022. South Africa's pear volume to India in 2023 is expected to increase even further due to recent events regarding tariff changes. More on that topic can be found in New India Apple Import Restriction to Affect Iran and Benefits Other Suppliers. Despite the worldwide expansion, South African traders put much effort into pear sales to African countries.

Still, even with the new continental free trade zone (The African Continental Free Trade Area-AfCFTA effective since January 2021), compliance with the complete cold chain supply remains an issue for West African countries due to a lack of the necessary infrastructure. For most parts, SA ships pears via reefer containers, while trucks are used in less extent due to high transportation costs. Problems occur with cold storage/QC processes. at ports, according to Elton Greeve, Tridge OM in South Africa.

In Nigeria, SA's pear volume is increasing, reaching 4,394 mt in 2022, a 10.07% YoY climb. Certainly, there is room for improvement. Nigeria's agriculture sector loses an estimated NGN 110 trillion (USD 268 billion) every year due to poor cold storage, agro-processing, and transportation infrastructure available to farmers. Inadequate cold storage significantly impacts highly perishable food commodities such as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Lower transportation costs and increased demand from China are the bright sides of overseas trade. The first shipments to China arrived in W1 of March 2023 and were well received due to high quality and competitive price, according to local insight from Alice Zheng, Tridge Origination Manager in China. Nevertheless, based on on-the-field information from Elton Greeve, Tridge Origination manager in South Africa, the primary reason for negative results will be adverse weather, hail, and excessive rain, especially in the Eastern growing region, which lowered volumes available for exports. Tridge expects that the South African pear volume decline will reflect on trade, and this trend will spread into the following years due to shrinking acreage under pears.