Fewer Apples and More Pears for the Canadian 2021-22 Season

Published Jun 28, 2022

The Canadian apple production for MY 2021-22 is forecast to decline 8% as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in all apple-producing provinces across the country. On the other hand, pear production is forecast to have a 3% growth with the same weather conditions that have benefited this crop. In addition, reductions in apple imports are anticipated for the rest of 2022 due to lower production in other source countries such as the US and Europe. The decrease in production and imports is expected to affect apple prices in Canada this year.

According to the FAS/Ottawa forecasts, an 8% YoY decline in Canadian apple production for the marketing year 2021-22 due to extreme weather events in different provinces. Production in British Columbia will be most affected, followed by Ontario, the leading apple-producing province. However, according to the same FAS/Ottawa forecasts, pear production is expected to increase slightly by 3% YoY as weather conditions were more favorable in Ontario, where 40% of pears in Canada are produced.

Canadian apple production is expected to be 9% below the five-year average. For the 2020-21 season, the labor shortage in Canada caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was a significant constraint for that season's harvest. Despite the labor availability, apple production was able to maintain a 4.5% YoY increase at 385 thousand mt. While for the MY 2021-22, labor challenges continue, the main contributor to the harvest decrease will be weather conditions throughout the apple productive provinces. Additionally, there are also concerns about crop quality and crop storability.

British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec reported adverse weather conditions which will affect apple production. British Columbia was substantially impacted by drought and heat waves, with suggested estimates of a 15% decline in production. In addition, extreme heat during the summer caused damage to trees and fruits, resulting in a smaller sizing.

In Ontario, the largest apple-producing region with 40% of Canada’s production, late spring frost events across much of the province damaged blooms and impacted pollination. Some other regions of the province experienced periods of drought during the summer and hail events, impacting crop quality. A significant infestation with Lymantria dispar in 2021, leading to widespread defoliation in certain regions, has also affected this season's harvest. For these reasons, the forecast estimates an 11% YoY reduction in Ontario’s production for this season.

In terms of apple trade, a 3% decline in imports of fresh apples into Canada is forecasted for the 2021-22 season, at 185 thousand mt. The decrease is driven by a lower global apple crop and weaker consumer demand. The US, which holds about 80% of the Canadian import share, is also expected to reduce its apple production by 4% to 4.7 million mt, its lowest level since 2012-13, as high temperatures affected yield in Washington and frost reduced Michigan’s output.

Despite the decrease in imports from US apples, the US is expected to gain a more significant market share in the Canadian market, as an overall decrease in production from the Northern Hemisphere is expected. Given their geographic proximity and robust transport logistics, the US will remain the dominant supplier of apples to Canada.

With a 3% YoY increase in the production forecast, imports of fresh pears are forecast to decline as a result of reductions in overseas pear crops and logistical challenges with the transport chain. However, reduced imports are expected to be partially offset by increased local production. As a result, the US will remain the top supplier of fresh pears to Canada, with 50% of the market share that it holds today.