Global Dependency on Brazilian Sugar Grows Amid Production Setbacks in India and Thailand

The global sugar market is currently grappling with a confluence of factors that have led to a notable depletion in sugar supplies. Key sugar-producing countries, India and Thailand, face production setbacks and export restrictions, contributing to a challenging supply landscape. According to Tridge's Dec-23 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, and Value Added Products, the sugar crop in India is forecasted to decline by 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) in the 2023/24 season, amounting to approximately 31.7 million metric tons (mmt). This decline has prompted the Indian government to implement an export ban, a significant development given India's historical role as a major sugar exporter.

Similarly, adverse weather conditions in Thailand, the world's third-largest sugar exporter, are expected to result in a 15% reduction in sugar production to 9.4 mmt, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Bangkok. The Thai Government's decision to subject sugar exports exceeding one ton to regulatory approval further underscores the challenges faced by major exporting countries. According to the Thai Sugar Millers Corporation, this decision could see Thai sugar exports drop by 42.9% to 4 mmt in 2023/24 from 7 mmt the previous year.

Figure 1: Annual Sugar Production

Amid this backdrop, Brazil emerges as the leading player in the global sugar trade. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil is set to export 32.5 mmt in 2023/24, a 15.2% YoY increase. Consequently, Brazil's exportable surplus enables the country to fill the void left by diminished exports from India and Thailand.

Figure 2: Brazilian Sugar Exports

Given the production challenges in major sugar-exporting countries like India and Thailand, Brazilian sugar suppliers can capitalize on emerging opportunities in alternative markets. While China remains a primary market for Brazilian sugar, suppliers can diversify their export destinations to leverage the supply gaps left by India and Thailand.

Several countries present promising markets for Brazilian sugar, including Sudan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and South Korea. In particular, South Korea has witnessed a growing demand for sugar, as evidenced by the substantial increase in Thai sugar exports. Tridge export data indicates that Thai sugar exports to South Korea reached USD 330.24 million in 2022, marking a remarkable 170.8% growth compared to USD 121.97 million in 2021.

This trend is anticipated to persist throughout the 2023/24 sugar season, given the ongoing export ban in India and the restrictions imposed by Thailand. Brazilian sugar suppliers can strategically position themselves to meet the rising demand in these markets. As the world navigates the challenges of reduced sugar supplies from traditional sources, Brazil's role becomes increasingly influential, shaping the trajectory of the global sugar trade.

However, Brazilian sugar suppliers must monitor potential challenges, such as growing congestion at major ports in the country. Port delays could impact the timely shipment of sugar, necessitating proactive management of logistics and supply chain considerations.

Additionally, Brazilian sugar suppliers can leverage Tridge Transactional Data Services, which provides Brazilian sugar suppliers with a strategic advantage in navigating the complex global sugar market by accessing buyer lists, trade history analysis, and real-time price data. Tridge TDS is a valuable tool for Brazilian sugar suppliers, providing them with actionable insights, enhancing their market intelligence, and enabling them to make informed decisions in a dynamic global sugar landscape.