How El Niño Could Affect Peanut Yields in India

El Niño Weather Conditions

As expected, the El Niño weather phenomenon has arrived and was confirmed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this month through the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. While it is still classified as a "weak El Niño," it is expected to strengthen as the year progresses. El Niño could significantly impact agricultural production, including peanut production in India.

The last El Niño event was in 2018/19; however, it developed fairly late in 2018 (autumn in the Northern Hemisphere). The years when El Niño was already observed in spring and summer were 2014/15, 2009/10, and 2002/03. The 2014/15 El Niño event lasted from spring 2014 to spring 2016.

India's Kharif Crop and Production Areas

India's cropping seasons are mainly divided into the Rabi crop (grown in winter) and the Kharif crop (grown in summer). The Kharif crop is heavily dependent on India's monsoon rains, which last from the end of May to September. In terms of peanuts, the Kharif crop normally contributes 83% to the total crop. India's peanut areas can be divided into two parts: the Northwestern areas (Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) and the Southern Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka). The Northwestern areas grow almost exclusively summer peanuts (Kharif crop), while the southern peninsula grows both Kharif and Rabi peanut crops. With the 2022 Rabi crop already harvested, the focus is on the Kharif crop, which is currently being planted.

Source: India Directorate of Economics and Statistics

The Effect of ENSO Events on India's Total Peanut Production

A summer El Niño event often leads to below-normal monsoon rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures over the Indian subcontinent. There have been some exceptions where India received above-normal rainfall during an El Niño event, but in all five El Niño events since the turn of the millennium, rainfall has been below normal. From another perspective, all years in which India experienced a significant drought were El Niño years. As India's production modernizes, yields are clearly tending higher, and countrywide yields for the Kharif crop were as high as 1,874 kg/ha in 2022/23. There is a strong correlation between El Niño events and lower yields. This is because the northwestern growing areas often suffer from low monsoon rains during an El Niño event. Yields in the southern peninsula are often less impacted by ENSO events, but it also makes up a smaller share of India's total production.

Source: Tridge, Japan Meteorological Association, India Meteorology Department, Department of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Gujarat

Gujarat is India’s top peanut-growing state, contributing 52% to the Kharif crop (and 44% to total production). The monsoon rains (Jun-Sep) contribute 95.4% of annual rainfall. In Gujarat, about 80% of peanut areas are rainfed and are very dependent on monsoon rains. Past El Niño events led to significant reductions in rainfall. The average annual rainfall over the last 20 years was 965mm. The average rainfall in the five El Niño years in this period was only 702mm. Yields are highly correlated to rainfall, and rainfall is correlated to ENSO events, although there are exceptions. The current El Niño event will most likely again lead to lower rainfall, and yields might drop below 2,000 kg/ha in 2023.

Source: Tridge, Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority, India Meteorology Department, Department of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Rajasthan

Rajasthan contributes around 20% to the Kharif crop. Up to 88% of peanut areas in Rajasthan are irrigated, and it is much less sensitive to variations in rainfall and ENSO events. Over the last 10 years, peanut yields have consistently increased despite variations in weather, as irrigation expanded. Yields are expected to drop slightly from the 2,447 kg/ha harvested in 2022’s Kharif crop.

Source: Tridge, India Meteorology Department, Department of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh produces around 8% of the Kharif crop. 90% of peanuts are rainfed; however, the impact of ENSO events on yields is fairly weak. In Madhya Pradesh, both El Niño and La Niña events often lead to lower rainfall than in neutral years. The 2022/23 Kharif crop produced satisfactory yields of 1,959 kg/ha, but for 2023/24, yields are expected to be closer to the five-year average of 1,782 kg/ha.

Source: Tridge, India Meteorology Department, Department of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology

The Southern Peninsula

The impact of ENSO events is fairly weak on the Southern Peninsula’s rainfall. The average annual rainfall over the last 20 years was 1,171mm, and for the five El Niño events, it averaged 1,053mm. 2016 was the year with the lowest rainfall in the past two decades (885mm), and it was considered a neutral year in ENSO terms. As there is not a strong correlation between ENSO events and rainfall over the production regions in the southern peninsula, it is too early to make an assumption on possible yields. The five-year average Kharif peanut yields for Tamil Nadu are 2,252 kg/ha, for Andhra Pradesh 780 kg/ha, and for Karnataka 861 kg/ha, and these could serve as benchmarks for the coming crop.

Source: Tridge, India Meteorology Department, Department of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Based on rainfall and peanut yields influenced by historical ENSO events, the production in Gujarat will determine the success or failure of India's Kharif peanut crop. Gujarat is the largest contributor to the crop but is also highly vulnerable to droughts caused by El Niño events. If there is a significant decrease in rainfall due to the strengthening of the El Niño system, it could result in substantial losses in the state. If peanut yields in Gujarat drop below 2,000 kg/ha, national Kharif production could decline by up to 10% compared to last year's 8.498 million metric tons. However, as peanuts are currently being planted, the outcome will heavily depend on the area of land that farmers choose to dedicate to peanut cultivation this summer.