Opinion

South Africa's Mango Exports Poised to Benefit from Peru's Shortfall

Fresh Mango
Netherlands
Emerging Market Opportunities
Peru
Market & Price Trends
Published Dec 8, 2023
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Peru is facing a significant decrease in mango production due to adverse weather conditions and delays. This shortfall is expected to impact the EU and the Middle East the most. With its consistent mango exports, South Africa is well-positioned to fill this gap and strengthen its standing in the global market. The delayed Peruvian mango season and reduced volumes created an opportunity for South Africa, especially in markets like the UAE, African countries, and the Netherlands. However, careful crop management and market monitoring are crucial for South Africa to capitalize on this opportunity entirely.

Peru's Mango Shortfall: A Potential Disruption in the Global Mango Market

The global mango market is dynamic and complex, with various countries playing pivotal roles in its supply chain. One such country is Peru, a significant contributor to global mango exports. However, recent reports indicate a shortfall in Peru's mango production, which could disrupt the global mango market. According to Asociación Peruana de Productores y Exportadores de Mango (APEM) data, Peru exported 249,314 metric tons (mt) of fresh mangoes in 2022/23 (October to April), a 7.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase over the previous season. The primary destinations were Europe, with 132,731 mt, and the United States (US), with 92,632 mt. These two markets accounted for 90% of total export volume.

Figure 1: South Africa Trade Flows of Fresh Mangoes

Trade flow of South Africa's Mangoes

Source: Tridge Transaction Data Service (TDS)

South Africa's mango exports have been consistent over the years. The country's favorable climate and advanced agricultural practices have made it a reliable source of mangoes for the global market. However, the current situation presents an opportunity for South Africa to strengthen its position in the worldwide mango market. Peru's shortfall in mango production is a significant development that could have far-reaching implications.

One of the significant mango exporting countries, Peru has recently experienced a decrease in its mango production. This shortfall is primarily due to adverse weather conditions and a delay in the start of the Peruvian mango season. The El Niñophenomenon had a detrimental effect on the blossom development of mango trees in Peru, leading to severe harvest losses. This resulted in a significant decrease in the volume of mangoes produced, with an expected drop of 80% in the Lambayeque region compared to the previous year.

Although there are no precise estimations, Peru's mango production should reach between 100,000 and 120,000 mt in 2023/24, far from the usual harvest of 600,000 mt. The lack of flowering in the field and the high input costs have further exacerbated the situation, leading to a dire state in the Peruvian mango market. In addition to these challenges, the Peruvian mango season started a month later than usual this year. Usually, the season begins in early December, but it is anticipated to start at the end of Dec-23. This delay and the reduced volumes have led to a production gap in the global mango market.

This shortfall in Peru's mango production will reflect mainly in the European Union (EU) and the Middle East. With its promising mango crop, South Africa is well-positioned to fill this gap. Furthermore, other players, such as Brazil, influence the global mango market, which currently offers lower prices than Peru. In conclusion, while the shortfall in Peru's mango production presents a potential opportunity for South Africa's mango export industry, it is crucial for South Africa to carefully manage its crop and monitor market dynamics to capitalize on this opportunity fully.

Figure 2: South Africa's Top 5 Exporting Companies

Top 5 South Africa's Export Companies in 2023

Source: Tridge TDS

Thanks to Tridge Transaction Data Service (TDS), agricultural stakeholders can delve into trade patterns of fresh mangoes in South Africa (SA). As pictured in the graph above, these are the top 5 export companies of fresh mangoes from SA and their export value in 2023. Since the main export markets for SA's traders are the UAE, African countries, and the Netherlands, Tridge expects that the limited availability of Peruvian mangoes will create opportunities for SA mangoes to increase its market share in these markets.

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