The US Almond Price Plummets

Source: Tridge

According to Tridge data, the wholesale price of the U.S. almonds have dropped by 8.5% year-to-date. The price drop was mainly attributable to the anticipation of a bumper crop and import tariff hike imposed by major U.S. almond importers such as India, China, and Turkey. With the tariff hike, the import price of the U.S. almonds have significantly increased for such major importers. As almond harvest season commences in major countries, we have been receiving an increased number of almonds sourcing enquiries recently.

Almond Production Set to Increase

Harvest Calendar

California, which accounts for 62.4% of the world and 100% of the U.S. almonds production, produced 2.3 billion pounds(1 million tonnes) of shelled almonds in 2016/2017, a slight increase from the previous year.¹ USDA projects California to set the new record of 2.5 billion pounds in 2017/2018, up 7% from the initial forecast and up 8% from 2016/2017 production. The nuts have grown into adequate sizes, benefitting from warm temperatures in May. The average kernel weight in 2018 is estimated at 1.54 grams, which is a slight drop from 2017, but the production amount is set to grow with an increase in the number of estimated almond-bearing acreages. Of 1.1 million estimated acreages, each acre is expected to yield 2,290 pounds.²

Spain, which accounts for 6.3% of global shelled almond production, recorded annual production of 53,600 tonnes in 2017, up 17% from 2016.³ La Mesa Nacional de Frutos Secos (MNFS) projects annual production of 61,200 tonnes, up 12% from initial forecast and up 15% from 2017 production. Such an increase in the projection forecast was due mainly to new almond-bearing acreages in areas of Extremadura and Murcia. Moreover, stronger rains strengthened the trees, leading to improved quality and size of the almonds.⁴

Iran ranks third in terms of shelled almond production, accounting for 4.6% of global production. In 2017, Iran’s almond cultivated land was 212,000 hectares(524,000 acreages), where its production quantity was 166,000 tonnes, up 11% from 2016. However, the amount is expected to drop to the range of 129,000-130,000 tonnes in 2018 due to the frost damages on almond bearing trees.⁵

In 2017, Australia demonstrated stagnant growth in shelled almond production at 82,000 tonnes, similar level to that of 2016 production.⁶ With an estimation of 5,000 additional hectares to be planted in 2018, we expect to see an increase in production.

Heightened Trade War to Restrict Almond Sourcing

1. India

India is the largest importer, accounting for 54% of the U.S. almonds export destination as of 2017. India recently proposed to raise import duty on 29 U.S. products. The decision to do so came shortly after failed attempts to settle complaints against the U.S. over tariffs on steel and aluminium. The import duty of shelled almond has been increased from Rs100/kg to Rs120/kg, where in-shell almond duty increased from Rs35/kg to Rs42/kg. This additional 20% import tariff hike was initially set to take effect on 4 August 2018, which is now delayed for 45 days in hopes to resolve the issues.

2. China

On 2 April 2018, China imposed 25% tariff on the U.S. almond on its own. The situation is now set to worsen as China closes trading loopholes for the U.S. almonds. For years, the Chinese government has allowed Vietnamese who reside near the Vietnam-China border to carry up to 8,000 yuan(USD 1,170) worth of goods per person without paying import taxes.⁷ The regulation was initially instituted to help locals avoid tariffs on their purchases. However, almond was recently eliminated from the list of goods for tax exemption. Beijing's initiatives to prevent the influx of American goods being transported into the country via transhipment demonstrate China’s efforts to make its duties on the U.S. imports as effective as possible. The amount of the U.S. almonds that are brought into China from Vietnam is estimated at over 40 million pounds annually. In 2017, the export value of the U.S. shelled almonds destined to Vietnam was at USD 33.7 million, where the value is set to drop as the loophole closes.

3. Turkey

On 21 July 2018, Turkey hiked retaliatory tariff on 22 U.S. products, where the import duty increase from 5% to 10% for the U.S. nuts, including almonds. Amid no signs of resolving, the situation is now set to worsen between the U.S. and Turkey, as Donald Trump authorised to double the Turkish steel and aluminium import tariff on 10 August 2018. Turkish officials immediately reacted by making an announcement on the retaliatory measure against the U.S. where further details are to be planned out later on. With escalating tension between two countries, Turkish buyers are facing difficulties in almonds sourcing.

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Tridge is currently making a connection between major almond buyers from Turkey and India with rising suppliers from various countries at a competitive price. As almond season commences from August for major producing countries, it is important to pre-occupy the stock in order to fulfil the desired amount, particularly in difficult times for almonds sourcing like this.

The item specification of almond varies according to its size, rancidity, moisture content, and more. Tridge connects buyers with suppliers who meet the required specifications at the most competitive price. For Suppliers, we identify trade opportunities with genuine buyers from various different regions. Through our distinctive network of world-wide scope local agents, we identify the most competitive condition customized for every buyer and supplier. Seize new almond trade opportunities with Tridge today. 

Contact Us:

Editor: Eunyoo Chang / eunyoo.chang@tridge.com

Sourcing Team Expert: Elly Lee / eunjeong.lee@tridge.com

Or request for quotation through: http://www.tridge.com/inquiry

References

1. “Crop Production.” USDA, 10 Aug. 2018, usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-08-10-2018.pdf.

2. “2018 California Almond Objective Measurement Report.” USDA NASS, 5 July 2018, www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Almond/Objective-Measurement/201807almom.pdf.

3. “Estimación de producción campaña 2018/2019”, La Mesa Nacional de Frutos Secos, 18 May 2018, https://www.agronegocios.es/tag/mesa-nacional-de-frutos-secos/.

4. “CALIFORNIA ALMOND INDUSTRY FACTS.” California Almonds, Almond Board of California, June 2018, www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2016_almond_industry_factsheet.pdf.

5. “Iran's first to third world ranking in the production of four dried fruits” YJC, 21 June 2018, www.yjc.ir/fa/news/6567884/.

6. “Almond Round Table.” Sevilla, World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress, 21-23 May 2018, nutfruitcongress.org/sevilla2018/files/pagina/1526914921_Almond_Round_Table_Joan_Fortuny.pdf.

7. Craymer, Lucy. “U.S. Almond Farmers Are Reeling From Chinese Tariffs.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 28 July 2018, www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-tariffs-hit-u-s-almond-exports-1532793600.