Brazil’s record soy harvest could crush global prices in 2026

expected to rise by a relatively modest 3.3% year on year, analysts warn that structural factors — expanding acreage, growing domestic stockpiles and trade uncertainty — could converge to tighten margins for farmers in both South America and the United States. “We’re growing at a scale that exceeds demand,” said Thiago Facco, vice president of Aprosoja Tocantins, warning that excess production could emerge in the near future. Global soybean inventories are already climbing, while Brazilian processors and exporters are facing logistical and economic challenges. According to Brazil’s oilseed crushers association Abiove, the country’s ending soybean stocks in 2026 are projected to be the highest in nine years, even as biodiesel demand continues to support some domestic consumption. U.S. soybean farmers are also likely to face mounting competitive pressure. Despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure large soybean purchases from China, actual shipments have fallen short. Since ...