USA's Avocado Production Expected to Increase in 2022
USA's avocado production
California, responsible for around 90% of the USA's avocado production, is estimated to produce 138,799 mt of avocado in 2022 according to California Avocado Commission (CAC). In 2021, 119,522* mt of avocado was produced in the state, so the forecast represents a 13.8% increase. Despite rising demand, the US avocado production has not increased since the turn of the century, partly due to growth expansion being limited by factors such as freshwateravailability and costs in California. The fact that avocado trees require ample irrigation and does not tolerate temperatures below the freezing point also limit expansion.
Data source: FAO Stat
The CAC forecast shows that production will peak in Apr-Jul where 24-27,000 mt of avocados are expected per month. Of the projected volume, 95% of produce will be of the Hass variety, whereas Lamb will make up 3% and Gem 1.5%. The Hass variety is a native variety of California, first cultivated in the state in the 1920s before taking over the world market with 80% of avocados consumed worldwide being Hass.
USA's Market Demand
The USA’s peak demand for avocados is in Jan-Feb surrounding the Super Bowl event and in Apr-May in relation to the celebration of Cinco De Mayo. However, avocado has become increasingly popular all year-round as it is regarded a superfood due to its high contents of mineral, vitamins and monounsaturated fat while simultaneously becoming a regular part of the assortment at fast food chains as the main ingredient of guacamole dip. As a result, the per capita consumption of avocados in the USA has grown at a CAGR of 7.6% between 2010 and 2020, taking per capita consumption from 4 lbs to 8.9 lbs. If the demand for avocados continues to follow this trend, the per capita consumption may reach 13 lbs by 2025.
Data Source: USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Tables
To satisfy the seemingly never-ending increases in demand, the USA relies heavily on imports and this reliance has only grown stronger since the turn of the century. As such, the import/consumption ratio increased from 37% in 2001 to 90% in 2020.
USA's avocado trade and the implications of production growth
The USA imports the vast majority of its avocados from Mexico, while the remaining imports primarily come from Peru and Dominican Republic. Shipments from Mexico occur throughout the year, though lower in volume during the California production peak months in the summer.
Data source: USDA Imports and Exports
In Jan-Oct 2021, imports have increased 10% YoY with the volume climbing from 2 million mt to 2.2 million mt. The main share of the increased imported volume originates from Mexico, which has experienced a 9.8% increase in export volumes to the USA, whereas Peru lifted their export 9.2%, Dominican Republic 20.3% and Chile 81.7%.
While the USA heavily relies on imports to cover the country’s vast demand for avocados, they do also continue to export substantial quantities themselves. In 2020, the USA exported 66,940 mt of avocados worth USD 164.7 millions, of which 75% was destined for Canada followed by South Korea (9.8%), Japan (9.2%) and Hong Kong (2.9%).
Considering the upward trend of demand for avocados in the USA, the expected increase for the California production 2022 is unlikely to have drastic implications for exporters to the USA, as demand is expected to be able to absorb the additional supply.
Notes
*This figure includes production from Nov-Dec 2020 and excludes production from Nov-Dec 2021. The produced volumes in these months are negligible.
Sources
California Avocado Growers (CAC)
CAC: 2022 California Pre-Season Crop Estimate and Harvest Projections
Rabobank: South American Avocados Satisfy Growing Global Appetite
USDA: Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2020 Summary