US Shrimp Imports Rise YoY for the First Time Since April 2022

 During Jul-23, United States (US) frozen shrimp imports managed to rise year-on-year (YoY) for the first time since April-22. As reported in previous analyses, there were subtle signs of a potential recovery in this market since this May, but June’s disappointing numbers watered that down. Nonetheless, July’s numbers seem to confirm that imports are resuming their typical seasonal trend, and even at a higher level compared to the five-year average. In fact, imports during H2-2021 and H1-2022 look increasingly like an anomaly, as consumer demand following the lifting of pandemic restrictions was likely overestimated and led to a glut.

On the other hand, import prices remain subdued compared to 2022 and the five-year average. As demand has been higher, noticeable in increased import volumes compared to their recent average historic numbers, the only explanation for a lower price compared to the 5-year average is much higher supply. Indeed, as Tridge has reported consistently throughout the year, increased global production is driving prices lower. This is led by Ecuador, the world’s largest shrimp exporter, and which also possesses the lowest average export price among the top exporters.

This July, import volume totaled 52.47 thousand metric tons (mt), representing a 3% annual increase. Meanwhile, in terms of value, imports totaled USD 414 million, which represent a decline of 7% YoY. However, the YoY decline in value was the lowest since May-22. Value fell despite increased volume since the average import price, at USD 7.90 per kilogram (kg), declined by 10% YoY.

By far, import volume from India represented most of the gains, with an increase of 13% YoY (+2.5 thousand mt), followed by imports from Indonesia, which rose by 19% YoY (+1.1 thousand mt). Increased imports from these countries were somewhat offset by declines in Ecuador, down 7% (-1.2 thousand mt), Mexico, down 52% YoY (-0.65 thousand mt), and Peru, down 66% YoY (-0.27 thousand mt).

Source: Tridge and USDA

India remains as the top spot for imports, as it also possesses one of the lowest prices among the top origins. The same can be said about Indonesia.

Just this July, the anomaly was presented by lower imports from Ecuador, which has the lowest export price. Low margins are challenging exporters, as some input costs, like diesel, have risen. This is in addition to reported growing insecurity issues in the country, reflected in additional costs to producers and exporters.

In Mexico’s case, imports fell to a new two-year low mostly on the back of a stronger peso, which in July averaged its strongest level against the US dollar since Nov-15. A stronger local currency disincentivizes exports as exporters receive less local currency for the same volume exported priced in the foreign currency.

Moving forward, imports will likely continue rising in the upcoming months, following their typical seasonal trend, which was broken in 2022. . Low margins for producers and exporters will likely result in higher import prices in upcoming months. Some of this is already happening in India. Nonetheless, higher import prices shouldn’t affect end-consumer demand much as retail prices hadn’t reflected much the low wholesale prices throughout the last 12 months.