W24: Maize (Corn) Update

In W24 in the maize (corn) landscape, the USDA reports that in the week ending June 9th, US corn export inspections amounted to 1.169 million mt, down 37.67 thousand mt WoW and 52.69 thousand mt YoY, with shipments mainly destined for Mexico and Japan. Just after the end of Q4 of MY 2022/23, US corn inspections reached 31.103 million mt, down compared to 44.988 million mt in 2021/22. The drop is attributed to the current strong export competition for most key commodities due to several factors, including seasonal supply and demand trends and the strength of the US Dollar compared to other major currencies. The USDA also indicates that US corn planting is completed. 93% of US corn crops have already emerged, up compared to 85% in W23, 87% in the same period in 2022, and 87% on average. Also, the USDA reports a drop in the percentage of crops in good or excellent condition from 64% to 61%, slightly below the 62% expected by the market and down compared to 72% in the same period in 2022. There are still 31% of corn crops in fair conditions and 8% in bad or very bad conditions.

SECEX reports that, in the first 6 working days of June, Brazilian unground corn (except sweet corn) exports totaled 231.15 thousand mt, 23.36% of the 989.3 thousand mt shipped throughout June 2022. The daily average of Brazilian corn shipments was 38.53 thousand mt, a decrease of 18.2% compared to 47.11 thousand mt achieved in June 2022. Experts emphasize the significance of Brazil exporting approximately 55 million mt of corn in this cycle to reduce inventories and restore balance to the domestic market. Meanwhile, Brazil's unground corn exports were valued at USD 64.911 million in the period, 20.7% of USD 313.127 million exported in total in June 2022. The daily average value of Brazilian corn exports stood at USD 10.818 million, down 27.4% compared to USD 14.91M in June 2022. The price per ton obtained also dropped 11.3% in the period, from USD 316.50 in June 2022 to USD 280.80. According to the CONAB projection, 2022/23 Brazilian corn production is expected to reach a record of 125.7 million mt, 11.1% higher than the volume produced in 2021/22 which represents an increase of 12.6 million mt. The first harvest of Brazilian corn has nearly concluded, yielding a production of 27.1 million mt. As for the second harvest, which is currently in the initial phase, an estimated production of 96.3 million mt is anticipated. Favorable climate conditions have supported the crop's development thus far. SAFRAS and Mercado indicate that the 2023 second corn crop harvest in the Center-South of Brazil reached 2.5% of the estimated area of 15.412 million ha, down compared to 3.1% of the cultivated area of 14.809 million ha in the same period in 2022 but above the 5-year average of 0.9%. In the state of Mato Grosso, the safrinha corn harvest reached 5.4% of the planted area, while in other states the harvest has not yet started. In the Matopiba region, the harvest of the 2023 second corn crop reached 0.1% of the cultivated area of ​​1.244 million ha, in line with the 2022 pace of the cultivated area of ​​1.192 million ha, but below the 5-year average of 0.4%.

In W24, the 2022/23 Argentine corn production was estimated to reach 35 million mt, unchanged from W23’s estimate. As of late in W23, Argentine corn harvesting reached 29%, up 2% WoW but down compared to 32% achieved in the same period in 2022 and 40% on average. In the major production areas in Argentina, corn harvesting was at 70-75%, with 30-40% harvested in southern Argentina and 0% harvested in the far northern part of the country. For Argentine early-planted corn, harvesting reached 51%, while late-planted corn was at 13%. Therefore, the average corn yield so far is at 4,640kg/ha, up 40.35kg/ha WoW but below the 5-year average of 7,460kg/ha. The 2022/23 Argentine corn was rated 54% poor/very poor, down 1% WoW, 42% fair, and 4% good/excellent as of late W23. Lasty, in the first four months of 2023, Peruvian purple corn exports totaled 240mt, valued at USD 560 thousand mt, down 3% in volume but up 18% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Peruvian purple corn shipments were destined for 10 countries, with the US accounting for 66% (156mt) of the volume and 79% (USD 445 thousand) of the value.