Australian exports to recover from past years drought

Australian wheat exports are forecast to increase by 84% to around 18.5 million tonnes in 2020–21. Significantly higher production and lower domestic demand will result in an increase in export supply and lower prices for Australian wheat.

The uncertainty about the adverse effects of COVID-19 on global demand for high-value foods made from flour may constrain growth in the demand for higher-value milling wheat.

This uncertainty extends to some of Australia's major markets. For example, in South-East Asia wheat imports have more than doubled over the past 10 years. Before the pandemic, rapidly expanding populations and increased incomes in the region drove the demand for western-style bakery products, and an increase in intensive livestock production increased demand for feed wheat. However, with economic growth forecast to slow in 2020, growth in imports is likely to slow or may even fall, particularly for imports of higher-quality milling wheat and feed wheat.