China as world's largest tilapia producer, consumer, and exporter of tilapia products, reported disruptions in transport, feed supplies, processing and consumption, especially of live tilapia.
The COVID-19 has caused all celebration of Chinese New Year to be cancelled, and the demand for restaurant meals was almost non-existent. This has diverted the supply to processing plants for the first few months of 2020. As the Chinese economy restarted in late-March and April, domestic sales of live, fresh fish on ice, and processed tilapia products have recovered. 2020 will probably end with the Chinese consumption of domestically produced tilapia to be only slightly less or the same as in 2019. However, export of tilapia products has been drastically affected.
As COVID-19 started to hit EU and US in March and April, food service and restaurants were shut down, purchases and imports of frozen tilapia products began to shrink. Export to the US was already substantially (30-40 percent) depressed, due to the imposition of the 10 percent (later increased to 25 percent) tariff on frozen tilapia products imposed in September 2018. So, the additional drop in demand fed back to even lower prices for the Chinese exporters and processors.
In March 2020, the tariffs were removed and sales have since increased, but are still at lower levels compared to 2017, as consumers who were no longer purchasing tilapia at restaurants began to purchase frozen tilapia at retail for safe storage and subsequent home consumption.
Reports from China are that, due to the depressed prices offered to tilapia farmers in late 2019 and into mid-2020, many farmers have reduced stocking of ponds after harvest and converted to shrimp, pangasius, or even vegetables.
Expectations are that China is unlikely to reach the 1,800,000 tonnes of production expected from 2019 and 2020, even if Chinese domestic markets increase purchases.