According to the US Department of Agriculture, Bangladesh's rice consumption may increase modestly to 37M/mt in the marketing year (MY) 2022-23 as the government continues to implement food assistance programs for the poor in response to recent food price hikes (USDA). In addition, according to the agency's annual grain and feed report on Bangladesh, population growth will lead to increased rice consumption in the future years.
According to USDA estimates, Bangladesh consumed 36.7M/mt of rice in MY 2021-22, commencing in May 2022, when the main rice crop, Boro, was harvested. Broken rice is also used as a filler in several feed formulae in Bangladesh's feed business. In addition, the feed industry will employ rice to complement other ingredients due to the recent high price of feed ingredients such as soybean meal and corn.
According to the agency, milled rice production is expected to rise 1.3% YoY to 36.3M/mt in MY 2022-23 due to increased harvesting. With the prospect of a bumper Boro harvest during the current harvesting season, the USDA predicts a drop in imports to 0.7M/mt in MY 2022-23. The agency did not consider crop damage from continuous flash floods in the northeast.
Because of a good harvest of rain-fed crops, Aman produced in November and December last year, and it expects rice imports to total 1.35M/mt in the current MY 2021-22, which ends this month. To preserve the interests of local rice producers, the government has imposed a 62.5% tariff to deter imports. According to the USDA, increased wheat imports by public and private entities are also expected. As a result, grain imports are expected to increase by 1.3% to 7.6M/mt in the July-June period of 2022-23, assuming increased and diverse use of wheat-based products for domestic and export markets.
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