Expanded surplus pressures sugar market

The global sugar market begins the new crop season in an environment of higher supply and adjusted demand, a scenario that maintains pressure on international prices. StoneX has revised its projections for 2025/26 and estimates a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the highest since 2017/18. The consultancy points to a 5% increase in stocks, which are expected to reach 77.3 million tons, raising the stock-to-use ratio to 39.9%, a level close to the two-decade average and associated with the bearish sentiment observed in recent months. Prices have been under pressure since September, when contracts in New York fell below US¢ 16/lb and later retreated to the US¢ 15/lb range in November. According to Marcelo Di Bonifácio, an analyst at StoneX, the weakening of prices is linked to the slow pace of global imports. He explains that many countries have consumed internal stocks even in the face of the 2024/25 deficit, reducing the need for external purchases. The lower-than-expected demand in ...