Uncertainty in Swedish Wheat Market Prices Due to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Swedish wheat market remains turbulent, with large price fluctuations day-to-day, mainly caused by the Russia-Ukraine war's developments. The market is particularly concerned aboutUkraine's export agreement with Russia, which expires in mid-November, and whether Russia agrees to extend it or not. This outcome, will determine the market's grain supply and prices. Apart from the war, there seems to be no reason in Sweden for the current price fluctuations.
Prices are moving downwards in periods without negative news from the war, while prices rise when there is major war news. Lower prices are mainly due to Russia having harvested a very large crop and being behind in export rate, followed by Australia, which looks set for a big harvest. The world economy, with overall high prices and high levels of inflation are also pointing to a potential decline in demand in the longer term. However, uncertainty will remain high as long as the war continues, and it will be difficult to predict price developments. Additionally, the market is also impacted by Sweden's weak exchange rate. The Swedish FOB export price for wheat in the W43 range between USD 606.34-611.31/MT.