Global arable market report (14 October 2024)

Recent forecasts of rainfall in key wheat-growing regions, such as Russia and France, have alleviated concerns of dryness, although attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and unfavorable weather in France have caused delays in plantings and exports. In contrast, the US maize harvest is progressing quickly with an increased yield forecast, supporting global wheat and maize markets. However, the market's strength is limited by the large US maize crop and more favorable European barley production. Russian wheat export policy concerns and wet weather in France, alongside potential export limits, contribute to the complex global agricultural market. Additionally, the market is faced with challenges such as increasing oil price volatility, weather concerns in key producing countries, and rising palm oil prices, but the expectation of ample soybean supplies helps to stabilize prices. The US soybean harvest is 47% complete, ahead of the five-year average, and there is robust demand from top buyers like China, the Netherlands, and Mexico. Paris rapeseed futures have also seen gains due to supported crude oil markets and a strong physical rapeseed oil market in the EU, with the EU rapeseed import campaign continuing to outpace last year.