August 2025 Outlook Report: Oils

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,531.25/40-foot container, marking a 25.46% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 50.19% year-on-year (YoY) drop. The decrease was largely attributed to sluggish demand following an earlier wave of frontloading ahead of the initial Jul-25 tariff deadline. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index averaged 154.53 points, an 8.05% MoM increase and a 28.41% YoY rise. The overall gain was driven by notable price increases in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP), which outweighed a slight decline in potassium chloride.

- Soybean Oil: United States (US) soybean oil prices rose 7.37% MoM to USD 1,220 per metric ton (mt) in Jul-25, driven by strong domestic biofuel demand and steady crush levels. Exports lost ground to South American competitors. Prices are expected to remain firm in Aug-25 amid tight global supply, though any recovery in exports could temper gains. In Argentina, soybean oil prices increased 8.09% MoM to USD 1,100/mt, supported by a 4% YoY rise in H1-2025 exports and expanded trade promotion, with firm prices likely to continue in Aug-25 despite US competitive pressures and structural production challenges.

- Palm Oil: Malaysia's palm oil prices rose 4.56% MoM to USD 1,007/mt in Jul-25, supported by modest production declines and steady domestic demand. Inventories increased slightly to 2.03 million metric tons (mmt), while exports fell amid weaker European Union (EU) demand and lower palm kernel oil shipments. In Aug-25, higher reference prices triggered a 9% export duty. Prices may face near-term downward pressure from softer exports and stock build-ups, though sustained demand from emerging markets could provide support.

- Sunflower Oil: Ukraine's sunflower oil prices rose 1.87% MoM to USD 1,141/mt in Jul-25, supported by strong export demand despite weakening domestic processing and low capacity utilization. Russia's prices increased 1.33% MoM to USD 1,124/mt, aided by suspended export duties and targeted policy support, while European Union (EU) prices climbed 3.23% MoM to USD 1,236/mt amid continued reliance on Ukrainian shipments. Prices in Aug-25 are expected to remain firm, although competition from palm oil and potential harvest shortfalls may apply downward pressure.