September 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,107.65/40-foot container in Aug-25, a 16.7% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 59.9% year-on-year (YoY) drop, driven by the easing of peak-season demand after Jul-25 and the earlier frontloading of volumes ahead of tariff deadlines. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index reached a record high of 127.95 points, up 0.6% MoM and 4.9% YoY. The increase was largely driven by higher beef and lamb quotations, which more than offset stable pork prices and a decline in poultry prices.

- Beef: Global beef prices are expected to remain high in the coming months, supported by tight supply and steady demand. United States (US) prices face herd rebuilding challenges, while Brazil risks losing ground due to US tariffs. Australia is gaining competitiveness, and the European Union (EU) continues to see bullish momentum from shrinking cattle herds and resilient demand.

- Poultry: US poultry exports are set to strengthen with new access to China, keeping prices stable, while Brazil is expected to recover on the EU’s market reopening. In the EU, short-term pressure from Spain’s highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak may weigh on prices, but strong demand should keep them elevated YoY.

- Pork: US pork prices are expected to stay firm on steady demand from Latin America, offsetting weaker sales to Mexico and China. Brazil’s exports are likely to keep growing in emerging markets, though abundant supplies may cap prices, while EU prices remain under pressure from surplus volumes, weaker exports, and higher imports.

- Lamb: In New Zealand, tight supply and firm global demand are anticipated to keep prices elevated through spring, with China’s recovery and EU demand providing key support. In Australia, lamb prices are expected to stay firm, with limited supplies and tough production conditions likely maintaining upward pressure despite new season lambs entering the market.