Asia sugar market to navigate lower cane output, changing import demand in H1 2024

The Asian sugar market sail into 2024 with headwinds of supply chain disruptions and cautious import demand amid historically high price levels. NY#11 sugar futures contract prices scaled to 12-year highs in April and continued to peak around 28 cents/lb levels in November. Facing ever-changing weather conditions and varying trade dynamics driven by policy changes, sugar prices in 2024 look to be heavily swayed by these fundamentals. Thailand sees drop in supply Thailand’s cane crush and sugar production estimates have been reduced in light of the effects of the El Nino climate phenomenon bringing about unpredictable weather, such as irregular rainfall during the planting season. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates the cane crush and sugar production for marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) at 85 million mt and 9.8 million mt, respectively. Thailand’s 2022-23 sugar harvest was completed April 6, with 93.9 million mt cane crushed and 11.02 million mt sugar produced. “Low ...