Brazil: Coffee crop at risk due to climate change

Climate change projections for Brazil’s finicky Arabica coffee crop show a rainy season shift that could threaten the crop’s flowering period and, ultimately, yields. A coffee plant’s flowering is an important indicator of potential yield as the fruiting bodies produced during this stage eventually become coffee cherries. Brazil is the largest Arabica coffee producer and exporter, providing the world with more than a third of its Arabica coffee beans. And traditionally, Brazil’s Arabica crop’s September-October flowering period follows the onset of the region’s rainy season. But, by 2050, climate projections show a considerably different temperature and precipitation pattern. By 2050, during Brazil’s crop’s critical September-October flowering period, the number of days above 34°C, a threshold where yield and quality issues arise, is projected to increase by up to 10 days per month. Additionally, September-October rainfall totals in Brazil’s Arabica coffee-growing regions are ...