Breaking news! Chile cherry exports are expected to decrease by 12%, market supply pace accelerates.

According to sources in the fruit industry, a weekly report from the Chilean Cherry Committee under the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association (Frutas de Chile) to Chinese importers and retailers showed that the export volume of cherries for the 2025/26 season has been significantly reduced to approximately 110 million boxes (5 kg/box, about 550,000 tons), a decrease of 12.1% from the previous season. This latest revision contrasts sharply with the export forecast officially released by the Chilean Cherry Committee on October 30. At that time, the committee initially predicted that the export volume of cherries for the 2025/26 season would reach 131 million boxes (5 kg/box), totaling about 655,000 tons, an increase of 4.6% from the previous season's 626,000 tons. However, as the season progressed, the impact of weather conditions and earlier harvest times gradually became apparent, leading some industry insiders to question whether the forecast might be too high. According to the Chilean Cherry Committee's 50th weekly report, the main reason for the reduction in export forecasts is the unfavorable weather conditions at the end of spring, which had a substantial impact on the final exportable fruit volume. The impact of weather factors was not fully evident when the forecast was conducted in mid-October, but as the harvest progressed, its effects became clearer. The report also shows that the harvest time for Chilean cherries this season is 7-10 days earlier than previous years, particularly in the Maule and O'Higgins regions, especially for the main varieties Lapins and Regina. The earlier harvest period has led to a more concentrated release of export volumes in a shorter period of time, significantly compressing the post-harvest handling and export pace, which has placed higher demands on packaging, cold chain, and logistics. As of the 50th week, Chile has already shipped approximately 298,749 tons (59.7 million boxes/16,236 containers) of cherries, completing 54% of the estimated total export volume. In addition, there is evidence that the weekly shipment volume at the beginning of this season was more concentrated than in previous years. However, recent weekly shipment volumes have shown a year-on-year decrease, with the shipment volume in the 50th week being 16% lower than in the same period of the previous season. In terms of varieties, Santina, the main mid-early variety, has almost finished exporting. The total export volume for this season is approximately 174,452 tons, a decrease of 4% from the same period of the previous season, a decrease of 10% from the entire season, and a decrease of 22% from the initial forecast. Increasing evidence suggests that the 2025/26 season is earlier than the previous season. Therefore, market participants should be cautious about the supply patterns and price dynamics of the previous season and should not blindly follow the experience of the previous season to guide the current season. Because the supply arrival is earlier, strategies such as delaying purchases to wait for the supply release and price rollback in the later part of the season may face greater risks this year.