China corn imports decline on waning demand

Published 2025년 2월 13일

Tridge summary

The USDA World Markets and Trade report has lowered its forecast for China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season to 10.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.0 million tons from the previous prediction, and the lowest volume since 2019/20. This reduction is attributed to policy interventions to support declining domestic corn prices and weaker consumption, particularly in the livestock sector. Factors such as weaker income growth and declining home prices have led to a decrease in disposable income and demand for corn and meat products. Despite efforts to support domestic prices through reduced imports, corn price declines have continued, with the fourth quarter producer price index for corn falling by over 16% year over year.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The forecast for 2024/25 (Oct-Sep) China corn imports is lowered 3.0 million tons to 10.0 million tons this month, according to the most recent USDA World Markets and Trade report. If realised, corn imports for China will drop by more than half (from 23.4 million tons in 2023/24) and reach the lowest volume since 2019/20. Policy interventions to support declining domestic corn prices amid weaker consumption are the primary driver of China’s dramatic drop in corn imports. Falling prices for corn reflect slowing demand growth from end-users, particularly the livestock sector, which is grappling with weaker consumer spending. Since December 2023, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports a more than $53/ton (~400 CNY/ton) decline in market prices for corn. Weaker income growth and declining prices for homes, a significant source of wealth for China’s middle class, have both curbed disposable incomes. This is particularly acute in the urban areas that drive livestock ...

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