According to UCN's assessment, the CFR price for 25cm+ Russian headless and gutted (H&G) narrow-barred mackerel has increased by $5/ton to $1,570/ton.
A Chinese source stated: "The price of narrow-barred mackerel raw materials is rising slowly, and one aspect is the demand for reprocessing. Most contracts have already been finalized, so the demand can be said to be good."
He also pointed out that some European Union and UK customers are using narrow-barred mackerel as a substitute for true mackerel and blackline mackerel because the latter are too expensive.
A Russian supplier said: "The demand from China may be digging into the foundation, although the total output this year is higher than last year, but the output from the western Bering Sea has decreased recently. European buyers are starting to realize the shortage of one-time frozen supply, prompting them to increase orders for two-time frozen products from China."
However, several industry insiders believe that the rising raw material prices are not favorable for Chinese processing factories. Earlier this year, European buyers placed orders with China at prices ranging from $2,600 to $2,700/ton (FOB), but now the prices have increased by more than 20%.
"The prices for two-time frozen products in China are still relatively low, and major European customers are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, trying to put pressure on China. However, with German retail contracts ending on June 30, they must prepare more raw materials, and the prices will be even higher. The current supply is still insufficient to meet the demand," said a European industry insider.
In the one-time frozen fish fillet market, the prices of PBO fish fillets from the US and Russia are rising month by month. In the first quarter of 2026, the outbound price of US fish fillets to the EU is expected to be $300/ton higher than in the second quarter of 2025. The price tug-of-war will unfold at the Bottom Fish Forum in Japan from October 21 to 23, and the rising US prices are expected to drive up Russian fish fillet prices, which will also benefit China's two-time frozen fish fillets.