China’s premium for Ukrainian barley, will it continue in the fall?

Published 2024년 7월 11일

Tridge summary

Ukrainian farmers have contracted to export 120 thousand tons of barley to China, making up 30-40% of the country's total grain exports. With a harvest forecast of 5-6 million tons, China and Saudi Arabia are the main global buyers of barley. However, prices may drop as supply increases during the intensified harvesting campaign. Currently, notional prices in Ukrainian seaports are $154-157 per ton, while "Chinese quality" barley is estimated at $162 per ton. There is concern about losing the premium for barley certification for trade with China, which is currently $5-7 per ton.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Ukrainian farmers contracted 120 thousand tons of barley for export to China in July. It is expected that 30-40% of Ukraine’s total grain exports will go to this country. So far, more than 1.5 million tons of barley have been harvested, and the harvest forecast is 5-6 million tons. This was discussed during the analytical briefing of the PUSK cooperative, created within the VAR. “The global barley market is driven by the EU, but Ukraine faces strong competition from Romanian grain. When buyers such as Cyprus and Italy enter the market, French and Romanian barley is mainly exported there. According to forecasts, this year’s barley harvest in the EU will add 11 million tons. The main buyers of barley on the world market are China and Saudi Arabia, which buy 50-60% of the total volume,” analysts explain. It is expected that July will be a weak month for exports, and prices may not rise as supply increases due to the intensification of the harvesting campaign. Currently, only about ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult