Coffee: Brazil's 25/26 Arabica crop set to dictate prices in 2025

Published 2025년 1월 20일

Tridge summary

The coffee market is expected to become less volatile in 2025, with Arabica coffee receiving more attention due to lower production in Brazil and Vietnam, which drove prices to record levels in 2024. The 2025 price outlook suggests that Arabica may reach new highs, while robusta futures may not surpass 2024 records. The size of the Brazilian 2025/26 harvest is uncertain, but it is expected to positively impact Arabica prices. The demand for coffee remains strong, leading to a new deficit as global production issues reduce stocks to historically low levels. High prices are expected to impact demand, but the limited supply and producers' willingness to wait for better prices are expected to keep prices supported until the new Brazilian harvest is available.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

At the beginning of 2025, the coffee market will show less volatility after a 2024 marked by intense fluctuations. According to Laleska Moda, Coffee Market Intelligence analyst, “this year, Arabica should gain greater prominence, unlike the previous period, when Robusta was the focus due to lower production in Brazil and Vietnam, pushing prices to record levels”. Vietnamese stocks were low in the 23/24 cycle, in addition to high temperatures and drought last year, which caused price increases and a delay in the harvest, with futures contracts reaching highs in September. “In Brazil, the rains since October 2024 have favored the filling of Arabica beans for the 25/26 harvest, but the size of production is still uncertain, with more accurate forecasts expected for the end of February. The performance of this harvest will be crucial for the direction of prices this year,” says the analyst. Price outlook for 2025 Vietnamese beans are gradually arriving on the market, while the outlook ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas