Commodity Prices to Hit Six-Year Low in 2026 as Oil Glut Expands

Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty. Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019. “Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will ...