Drought and Russian export tax cloud Kazakh trade flows

Published 2021년 10월 26일

Tridge summary

Kazakhstan's winter crop harvest has seen lower yields but higher quality due to a dry planting season and abnormally warm and dry growing conditions. The Ministry of Agriculture reported an average yield of 1.02 tonnes per hectare, with 90% of the harvested wheat making food-grade quality. The USDA estimates wheat production at 12 million tonnes, a 16% decrease from the previous year. The government is considering introducing export duties to control domestic prices and may import wheat from Russia to meet export forecasts. Trade with Russia has increased due to a new export tax, but there is concern about under-reporting of grain movements. Kazakhstan's wheat is exported to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and China, but trade flows are disrupted by financial transaction concerns in the Taliban regime, Chinese trade barriers, and COVID-19 quarantine restrictions.

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Original content

This season's winter crop harvest in Kazakhstan is all but complete, with a dry seedbed at planting followed by an abnormally warm and dry growing season and many dust storms culminating in lower-than-average yields but above-average grain quality in most regions. As of October 22, Kazakhstan farmers had reportedly harvested 15.8 million hectares, or 99.7 per cent of the forecast harvested area. The Ministry of Agriculture stated that 16.1 million tonnes of grains and pulses had been reaped, with an average yield of 1.02 tonnes per hectare. In its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged Kazakhstan wheat production for the 2021-22 season at 12 million tonnes. This was down from its September forecast of 12.5 million tonnes. But it is almost 16 per cent lower than the USDA's 2020-21 wheat production figure of 14.256 million tonnes. The harvested area is expected to end up at 12.7 million hectares, putting the ...

Source: Farmweekly