EU short term outlook: Tight stocks support firm prices

Published 2024년 10월 17일

Tridge summary

The European Commission anticipates a slight increase in milk deliveries in 2024, despite weather challenges and a declining herd size. The increase is due to the availability and quality of grassland and fodder. However, there are varied movements in production across different countries. Milk solids supply is expected to be stable, and raw milk prices have stabilised 17% higher than the average. The dairy herd is predicted to continue its long-term declining trend, but yields are increasing. Dairy product stocks are tightening due to lower imports and exports. In 2025, the supply of milk fats is expected to be stable, leading to an increase in cheese and whey production. However, exports of SMP and WMP are expected to decline due to inadequate demand and price competitiveness.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The European Commission expects milk deliveries in the region to increase by 0.5% in 2024 as per the latest EU short term outlook. This is slightly higher than the 0.4% increase forecast in the Spring outlook. Despite weather challenges and declining herd size, the availability and quality of grassland and fodder supported an increase in deliveries. However, varied movements were seen in production across different countries. According to the latest data available, in July deliveries picked up in France, Italy, Poland, Spain whilst it fell in Ireland and Netherlands following the impact of wet conditions. The supply of milk solids is expected to be stable. Raw milk prices stabilised 17% higher than the 5-year average as of August 2024. Grasslands are in average condition in western Europe and weather conditions remain varied across regions. The wet spring in Ireland affected groundwork whilst hot and dry conditions in eastern and southern Europe had impact on pasture growth. On a ...

Source: Ahdb