Export prices for barley in Ukraine are increasing but may turn downward in the second half of the season

Ukrainian barley exports have seen a surge in demand due to increased prices for feed wheat and corn, as well as the depreciation of the hryvnia. Feed barley prices have risen by 200-300 UAH/t to 9,000-9,100 UAH/t in Black Sea ports, and 192-194 $/t in Danube ports. Despite these higher prices, producers are withholding sales. In the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine exported 1.9 million tons of barley, twice the previous year's figure, though December exports dropped to 37,000 tons. Malting barley prices remained steady at 8,800-9,000 UAH/t, despite low malt prices and competition from European malt producers. The European Union has reduced its barley exports by 34% in the 2024/25 marketing year. Global beer demand is declining, which is expected to lower prices in the second half of the season, as the EU and UK are projected to increase their barley production in 2025. Ukraine's barley harvest for the 2024/25 marketing year is estimated to be 5.5 million tons, with an export potential of 2.5-3 million tons.