Falling Chinese pig price hits import volumes and global pork market, according to Rabobank analysts

Published 2021년 7월 29일

Tridge summary

Chinese pig prices have seen a significant decline in the first half of the year, leading to a potential 20% drop in import volumes compared to 2020. This is due to African swine fever outbreaks, which have resulted in herd liquidation and an oversupply of pigs. Despite expectations of a price rebound in the third quarter, high frozen pork inventory is expected to keep prices low. This could impact exporting regions as China's import demand softens. Meanwhile, pork production in China has seen strong growth in the first half of the year due to ASF-related liquidations. In other regions, pork production growth is expected to be limited by high feed costs. The discovery of ASF on German domestic pig farms could also impact non-EU export markets. In the United States, pig prices have stabilized despite disease loss and high feed costs, with strong demand for belly and ham keeping prices high. Brazilian pork production has started the year well but high feed costs may limit further growth.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Falling Chinese pig prices on the back of a surge of African swine cases is hitting Chinese import volumes and have an impact on the global pork market, according to Rabobank analysts. China’s pig prices declined sharply in the first half of this year, falling to levels below imported pork prices, with Chinese import levels this year now expected to be up to 20% down on 2020 volumes. In its latest global pork report, Rabobank identified several reasons behind the price plunge. ASF outbreaks related to a new variant In the first four months of 2021 led to herd liquidation in affected regions, causing a temporary supply surge. This was followed by the dumping of oversized pigs as farmers abandoned hope of a price rebound and rushed heavy pigs to slaughter, putting extra pressure on supply from April to June. Further disease outbreaks in the south and southwest in late May caused a new round of liquidation in affected regions, Rabobank analysts said. The sudden supply increase ...

Source: PigWorld