Favorable climate maintains optimism for the soybean crop

Climate projections indicate the formation of a low-intensity and short-duration La Niña, with a peak expected between November and December and a transition to neutrality in early 2026. This scenario tends to favor the summer crop in Brazil, although there is concern about a possible reduction in rainfall in the far south of the country in December. Nonetheless, for the complete crop period, the outlook remains positive for both Brazil and Argentina, according to Itaú BBA. In the United States, the 2025/26 soybean production was lower due to the reduction in the planted area. Exports were estimated at 44.5 million tons, pressured by the tighter supply and competition from South American products. Even after the announcement of the trade agreement with China, the USDA revised down the projection of American shipments. Itaú BBA notes that if Chinese demand does not maintain the necessary pace to reach the predicted target of 12 million tons, prices may fall on the Chicago exchange ...