Garlic stocks reach a new high in recent years, facing long-term downward risk.

On September 18, 2025, the national cold storage garlic inventory reached 5.3 million tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year, marking a new high for the same period in recent years. Data from October 1 showed a decrease in inventory to 4.93 million tons.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in September 2025, the domestic garlic production in 2025 is expected to reach 15.92 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons from the initial forecast at the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3%. The planting area in the main northern producing areas (Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with a total output of 9.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Thanks to suitable light and temperature conditions in spring and improved irrigation facilities, the garlic yield in Shandong, Henan, and other places increased to 1.34 tons per mu, an increase of 0.12 tons from the initial forecast at the beginning of the year. For example, in the Xuzhou production area of Jiangsu, the proportion of superior garlic (diameter ≥ 6.5 cm) exceeded 60%, and the weight of individual garlic heads increased significantly.

In terms of price performance, this year's garlic prices showed a "high at the beginning and low at the end" pattern. From January to February, the average price at the origin reached 9.23 yuan per kilogram, the highest in nearly five years for the same period, but as new garlic entered the market in May, prices fell rapidly, decreasing by 31.8% from the beginning to the end of the month. Although prices showed a slight rebound during the June-August storage period, with an average price of 5.04 yuan per kilogram in June, and 5.08 yuan and 5.40 yuan in July and August respectively, the year-on-year decline was over 20% each month, reflecting the pressure on prices due to sufficient market supply. There was a significant price differentiation among producing areas, with the price of garlic in Jinxiang, Shandong, maintaining at 2.63-2.86 yuan per jin, while in Qi County and Zhongmu, Henan, affected by rainy weather, garlic prices for seed fell to around 2.50 yuan per jin, showing limited market acceptance of high-priced raw materials.

Reviewing the relationship between inventory and price over the years, the domestic cold storage garlic inventory from 2021 to 2025 showed a fluctuating pattern of "increase-decrease-increase." In 2022, the storage volume was over 5.2 million tons, and by May 2023, there were 1.4 million tons left; in 2023, 4.4 million tons were stored, and by May 2024, there were 900,000 tons left; in 2024, 4.2 million tons were stored, and by May 2025, only 400,000 tons remained. The inventory reduction process in the first two years was accompanied by rising garlic prices, with the 2023 storage price close to 4 yuan per jin, and around 3.5 yuan per jin in 2024, stimulating garlic farmers to expand planting. This year, the inventory rebounded to a high of 5 million tons, directly related to the bumper harvest brought by the expansion of planting in the previous two years. The current storage average price of 2.3-2.4 yuan per jin, although lower than the previous two years, still allows garlic farmers to benefit due to the increased yield. This may continue the trend of expanding planting, forming a new market cycle.

From January to July 2025, China's garlic export volume was 1.5147 million tons, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. However, the average export unit price was 1,157 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, resulting in an export value increase of only 0.6%. The Southeast Asian market performed well, with Indonesia's monthly import volume reaching 78,000 tons, an increase of 56.62% year-on-year, driving the price of specific garlic in Jinxiang to 2.90-3.00 yuan per jin. The Southeast Asian region accounted for 46.2% of the total export volume, with Indonesia accounting for 24.3%. However, the European and American markets were under significant pressure, with the United States imposing an anti-dumping tax rate of 45%.