Global trade in cereals in 2022/23 revised down further, forecast for 2023 world wheat production up marginally from last month

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has provided an update on the global cereal market outlook for 2022 and 2023, highlighting slight changes in production, utilization, and stock forecasts. For 2022, the total cereal production is predicted to decrease by 1.2%, amounting to 2.777 million tonnes, with a minor increase in coarse grain production in Australia and Ukraine offset by a reduction in rice production in Indonesia. The utilization of world cereals is expected to decrease by 0.7% in 2022-2023, primarily due to lowered coarse grain utilization.

The FAO also anticipates a slight increase in the global wheat utilization in 2022-2023, despite a minor decrease in global rice utilization. The organization also notes a mixed picture for global cereal stocks, with an increase in wheat and coarse grain stocks but a decrease in rice stocks. The trade in cereals for 2022-2023 is forecasted to experience a 2.7% decline, largely due to reduced coarse grain trade.

Looking ahead to 2023, the FAO provides an optimistic outlook for wheat production, with increased plantings and favorable conditions in several countries, including the European Union and Asia, despite challenges such as dryness in Europe and economic impacts of the war in Ukraine. In South America, the production forecasts for maize are mixed, with record production in Brazil but lower production in Argentina due to dry conditions. Overall, the FAO's projections indicate a complex global cereal market, with some challenges such as dry conditions in North Africa and Argentina, but also opportunities for increased production in other regions like the European Union and Asia.