Hedgepoint updates global sugar balance and trade flows

Published 2024년 10월 30일

Tridge summary

Hedgepoint Global Markets Sugar and Ethanol Analyst Lívea Coda discusses the scenarios for the markets of Brazil, India, Thailand, the European Union and the United Kingdom, Mexico, the United States, Guatemala, Ukraine, Russia and China in the Global Sugar and Trade Flow Balance. The sentiment in the sugar market has shifted to a more bullish outlook due to adverse weather conditions and fires in Brazil's Center-South region. Europe, Central America and Thailand are expected to contribute more to the international market. India's sugar exports are estimated at 1.5 Mt, given the favorable parity. Brazil is expected to produce around 610 Mt of cane and approximately 39.8 Mt of sugar. The Center-South region could export 31.5 Mt of sweetener this season, with summer rainfall being a critical factor. Ethanol prices remained low, lagging behind sugar prices due to drought conditions and recent fires in the region making it difficult for mills to achieve desired sugar mix levels, resulting in higher-than-expected ethanol production.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Hedgepoint Global Markets Sugar and Ethanol Analyst Lívea Coda discusses the scenarios for the markets of Brazil, India, Thailand, the European Union and the United Kingdom, Mexico, the United States, Guatemala, Ukraine, Russia and China in the Global Sugar and Trade Flow Balance. The sentiment in the sugar market has shifted to a more bullish outlook. “Since April, production estimates for the Center-South region have been downgraded due to adverse weather conditions and fires. Although the Northern Hemisphere is expected to recover, its production will still fall short of historical levels. Thus, trade flows are expected to experience significant pressure between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, contributing to an upward trend in the short and medium term,” says Lívea. With the start of the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, the availability of white sugar is expected to increase, exerting downward pressure on the white sugar premium. “This situation is ...

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