Higher supply should change the ethanol scenario

The ethanol supply is expected to gain strength starting from the 2026/27 crop, in a move that could alter the balance observed this year in the biofuels market. The combination of increased production in sugarcane mills and the continuous expansion of corn ethanol tends to significantly raise the available volume, creating an environment for potential downward pressure on prices over the next cycle. In the Center-South, the recovery of sugarcane availability in 2026/27 is expected to stimulate a change in the industrial mix. Mills that prioritized sugar in 2025/26, reducing ethanol supply, tend to reverse this strategy to take advantage of the more favorable scenario for biofuels. The outlook is for a significant increase in sugarcane ethanol production. The corn ethanol sector maintains a trajectory of accelerated expansion. The significant advance recorded in 2025/26 is expected to continue in the following cycle, driven by the high price of ethanol and cheaper corn, a ...