Global: IGC grain and soybean market review

Global grain production for 2024/25 is forecast at 2,315 million tonnes, with localized drought affecting wheat prospects in Australia and Argentina. Despite cuts in EU and Russia estimates, gains in Kazakhstan and Turkey keep the world crop estimate unchanged. Consumption is expected to rise, with carryover stocks increasing, but trade forecasts are lowered due to reduced imports. Soybean and rice production are projected to reach new peaks, with soybean output seeing a 7% increase and rice production rising by 8 million tonnes. However, total supplies are slightly lower year-on-year due to tighter opening stocks, and ending season stocks are expected to fall to a 10-season low. Global trade is anticipated to decrease significantly, with a 36 million tonne drop from last year's peak. The article also notes that increased output from Canada and the EU is offsetting reduced Russian production, but inventories are expected to decline by 6%, and trade is projected to decrease by 12% in 2025 due to reduced demand in India.